The Leave campaign – just like Donald Trump’s bid for the presidency – was based on a false prospectus. To respect the referendum result means to accept this as normal, writes Simon Wren-Lewis (Oxford University). It is not. Those who voted for a fall in immigration and more money for the NHS will not get them. That is why it is right to limit the damage the referendum vote does, and reverse it whenever that opportunity arises.
Take the people who voted Leave because they believed there would be more money for the NHS if the UK didn’t have to contribute to the EU. People, and there were plenty of them, who believed the £350 million a week figure. Should we respect their vote by leaving the EU, which would mean considerably less money available for the NHS?
And how about those who voted Leave because they believed less immigration from the EU would mean they had better access to public services. They can hardly be blamed for voting that way, because plenty of politicians from the Prime Minister downwards have told them that immigration is to blame for pressure on public services. In reality reducing immigration would almost surely reduce the money available for public services. So how are we respecting their wishes by leaving the EU?
And those who voted Leave because they were worried about being ‘swamped’. Not because it was happening to them right now, but because they have read that it is going to happen. When Turkey joins the EU. Or with all those refugees. Because they read countless articles that scare them. The only difference between this example and others is that this is explicit in talking about ‘the Muslim problem’. Do we honestly think that leaving the EU but continuing with free movement is going to assuage their fears?

It is an awkward truth that what many people wanted when the voted Leave is either simply impossible, or cannot happen without making everyone significantly poorer year after year. It is this reality that keeps the government in a fantasy world. Almost no one who voted to Leave is going to be happy with the result of government decisions. Those who wanted better access to public services will not get it. Those who wanted more sovereignty will find their sovereignty sold off cheap in a desperate attempt to get new trade deals. Those who wanted less immigration will also find their wishes largely frustrated because the UK cannot afford to reduce immigration.
The parallels with the US are clear. The Republicans, after spending years denouncing Obamacare, found they could not produce anything better. Those promoting Leave also did so without any thought to how it might actually happen, and therefore they have nowhere to go when confronted with reality. As a result, the government invents a magical customs union so that Liam Fox can have something to do. I have never known a UK government look so pathetic.
This is why the lies told by the Leave side are so critical. People tell me this is not important because most elections involve politicians lying. I’m afraid this is exactly equivalent to saying that Trump is just another politician who lies. It should be obvious that Trump and today’s Republican party are something new and dangerous: people who tell blatant lies all the time about crucial issues and construct an alternative reality with the help of media outlets like Fox News. In exactly the same way, those in charge of Brexit live in their own imaginary world supported by the pro-Leave press. It is this imaginary world that they got 52% of the electorate to vote for.
That alone is enough to completely discredit the referendum as an exercise in democracy. But there is more. The debate we should have had during the referendum was about the costs and benefits of immigration, This never happened because the person leading the Remain campaign had spent so much of his political life stoking up fears about immigration. It is hardly surprising that so many people voted to end free movement when both campaigns were united about immigration being a problem and way too high. The referendum campaign was like a boxing match where one side tied one of his hands behind his back and the other side brought knives
Respecting the referendum result means passing all this off as just normal. It is not normal. It is no more normal than Republicans taking health insurance away from millions. It is like an election held by an authoritarian state that runs a xenophobic campaign and controls much of the means of information. In that case we would say that this authoritarian state respected democracy in only the most superficial sense, and the same was true for the EU referendum.
We cannot say that we should respect the right of people to make mistakes when the information they were given was so untruthful. The people voted for Trump and it is right to struggle to limit the damage and overturn that result after four years. Those who struggle against Trump are not disrespecting democracy but fighting to preserve it. In the same way it is right to limit the damage the referendum vote does and reverse it whenever that opportunity arises.
I understand those who say that in today’s political environment anything other than another referendum is politically impossible. I understand why it benefits the opposition to sit on the fence and triangulate. (Although what is the point of Labour hedging bets on keeping in the customs union? It makes their Brexit strategy look much more like confused and conflicted than strategic triangulation.) But please do not tell me that by being politically expedient in this way you are keeping the moral high ground. (It is very easy to tell the difference between political expediency and political conviction. Imagine the very unlikely event that parliament votes to end Brexit. Would you join demonstrations outside parliament calling this an affront to democracy, or would you breath a huge sigh of relief?) There is nothing noble in defending an exercise in democracy that was as deeply flawed as the EU referendum. It is no accident that the only major overseas leader that supports Brexit is Donald Trump, and that those pushing Brexit hailed his victory. Brexit is our Trump, and the sooner both disappear the better the world will be.
This post represents the views of the author and not those of the Brexit blog, nor the LSE. It first appeared at Mainly Macro.
Simon Wren-Lewis (@sjwrenlewis) is Professor of Economic Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, Oxford University, and a fellow of Merton College.
It seems as plain as day to me, that the fault does not lie with ‘respect’, but with ‘result’.
The (glorified) opinion-poll of June 2016 yielded these ‘responses’:
1/3 ‘for’ Leave, 1/3 ‘to’ Remain, 1/3 Unsure.
To ignore the ‘purely advisory’ nature of the referendum, as legislated for:Is to ignore the Law and the substance of the debates that led to the actual legislation.
Agree. Not to mention UK is a parliamentary democracy. We literally pay the MPs to take important and complex decisions for all of us. Its literally their job.
Ruling by advisory referenda is:
1. Against the actual law.(advisory bit)
2. Destroys the UK parliamentary democracy (because it is not designed for direct referenda based democracy)
No wonder dictatoress May wants to rule by outdated undemocratic Henry VIII decrees.
MP must grow balls and decide and not hide behind one or two referenda.
“It is like an election held by an authoritarian state that runs a xenophobic campaign and controls much of the means of information”
Yet the ‘authoritarian state’ wholeheartedly backed Remain, and in so far as they controlled the information it was in a pro Remain leaflet distributed to all households. The head of the ‘authoritarian state’ resigned as he could not face the result. The ‘authoritarian state’ (which had an in out referendum promised in the winning Tory manifesto, then voted on in parliament, then held with a majority for Brexit, then also a parliamentary vote on article 50 and a subsequent election that produced an overwhelming vote for parties committed to respect the result, and with opinion polls showing the large majority want the democratic decision enacted) is in fact a democratic state. Not perfect, but democratic.
You may want Brexit to disappear, but marshalling all sorts of slurs and insults shows a palpable disdain for democracy, and for the capacity of the demos to reason and decide. Democracy is not authoritarianism.
If you have an alternative model for democracy, perhaps involving a state truth commission to oversee which arguments are allowed and which are not, then you can propose that. It is one of the benefits of living in a democracy.
Except that the government that launched the referendum for purely party-political reasons allowed the rabidly pro-Brexit billionaire-owned (also several non UK) gutter press a free rein to lie and deceive as much as they wished – and there were other manipulations as well. See
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/07/the-great-british-brexit-robbery-hijacked-democracy?CMPC .
The government certainly did not control the “information”.
And as for so many of our elected MPs reversing their anti-Brexit convictions – I won’t go into their motivations, but it certainly wasn’t “democratic” – the way Article 50 was steam-rollered through.And please do not equate the latest general election results with a pro-Brexit landslide! they were anything but that.
Simon Wren-Lewis is absolutely right.
I would add that the government’s interpretation of and obedience to the referendum result (non-democratic because an estimated 2 million UK citizens were disfranchised) and its actions since, so extremely against the national interest, are in my view tantamount to treason. An extreme statement perhaps, but the results so far, most predicted before the referendum, include several deaths, no doubt more to come, extreme violence from some “Brexiteers”, a completely divided country, families etc., and “little England” with a feeble Brexit majority deciding for Scotland and Northern Ireland which both voted to remain (I won’t elaborate here on the Welsh turkeys voting for Christmas), hundreds of thousands of UK citizens abroad no longer able to live on their grossly devalued UK state pensions, extreme xenophobia being exacerbated, etc. A breakdown of “democracy”. And many further harmful consequences to come.
Shame on this apology for a government.
In fact the EU’s own figures indicate that (a) UK is not at all exceptional in its positivity / negativity towards migrants from the EU (and very much at the positive end with regard to non EU migrants) (b) Became more ‘positive’ towards migrants in the October 2015-October 2016 period covering the EUref. Look up ‘EU barometer’.
It is very unfortunate that the notion of a big increase in xenophobia is constantly repeated as a stick to beat Brexit. It is divisive, untrue, and an insult to millions of people who are labelled racist for voting against EU membership.
Yes of course there are some nasty and bigoted people who voted Brexit. The last 14 months has shown that this is true also of some campaigners for Remain who feel calling voters ‘turkey’s’, ‘little Englanders’, ‘low information’, ‘thick’, ‘duped’, ‘racists’, etc is somehow a defence of progressive values.
There is a serious issue with the system of our Parliamentary democracy called the “Whips”. The use of the “Whips” system to threaten and force MPs to vote along “Party lines”, which are dictated by few people, against their own conscious and against the will of the majority of the constituents who elected them to office is very undemocratic, in fact dictatorial. A simple example was the vote to trigger article 50.
We shall have no true democracy until this is corrected.
Yes, you are right – and a few front-benchers (2? 3?) on the Labour side resigned from the front bench in order to defy their party’s three-line (!) whip and vote in accord with their consciences and their constituents.
The imposition of a non-free vote in such circumstances is indeed dictatorial behaviour and a denial of democracy.
Isn’t this site intended for serious discussion of the issues raised by the Brexit vote rather than polemic and unverifiable speculation?
“This is why the lies told by the Leave side are so critical. People tell me this is not important because most elections involve politicians lying. I’m afraid this is exactly equivalent to saying that Trump is just another politician who lies. It should be obvious that Trump and today’s Republican party are something new and dangerous:”
Was this article written to just have a pop at President Trump, or is the author of the article equating the election of President Trump with the people running the leave campaign?
Either way, as far as I am concerned this whole article is yet another in a long list of tiresome articles trying to discredit the leave result and the people who voted to leave, thankfully we are leaving.
” as far as I am concerned this whole article is yet another in a long list of tiresome articles trying to discredit the leave result”
Aww – bless. “Tiresome”? But I guess reading the truth and realising that you were lied to re Brexit must be pretty tiresome.The article points out the similarites between Brexit campaign lies and Trump campaign lies – did you actually read it?
This is why the lies told by the Leave side are so critical. People tell me this is not important because most elections involve politicians lying. I’m afraid this is exactly equivalent to saying that Trump is just another politician who lies. It should be obvious that Trump and today’s Republican party are something new and dangerous:”
Was this article written to just have a pop at President Trump, or is the author of the article equating the election of President Trump with the people running the leave campaign?
Either way, as far as I am concerned this whole article is yet another in a long list of tiresome articles trying to discredit the leave result and the people who voted to leave, thankfully we are leaving.
Wrong: politicians from the Prime Minister downwards don’t need to say that immigration is to blame for pressure on public services, we have eyes and can see the impact
The world in which we live is becoming more complex by the minute. We desperately need institutions that we can trust to deliver honest and independent interpretations of how things operate and of the consequences of different policies and behaviours. The UK CAA seems able to do this in respect of civil aviation and so we are prepared to board an airplane with confidence even though we do not understand the complexities of the plane or the air traffic control systems.
Do we have the same confidence in our political institutions? My impression, and that of a lot of folks I know, is that the EU referendum was not called in order to decide the future of the UK, but it was called to silence a small troublesome group of right wing Tory MP’s who have been a problem for successive part leaders.
So it was framed to pit an existing institution against a step into the unknown. The miscalculation was that the electorate would not be so stupid as to choose the “unknown”. But now we know that electorates can choose the unknown if it is attractively packaged.
But politics is not a question of technique and expertise. It is not like flying a plane. It is a question of values and vision, of human choices about the society we want. If it were like flying a plane, why even bother with democracy?
As with ‘cheese’, simply repeating the word ‘democracy’ gets nobody any closer to what may (or may not) be being said.
It appears to me that on many of the occasions the word is bandied about it can only mean: “The lie happens to suit me.”
Obviously, the idea that the next lie may not suit, is best left unsaid and unconsidered.
Referendums may well be a part of UK Politics, but they have no place in UK Democracy. We’d do a great disservice to future generations were we to allow Party-Politics to transform ‘Government’ into ‘Rule’.
Andy – The article does no such thing, so give it a rest, we are leaving, deal with it.
Absolutely right – there is one other major head of state who is pro-Brexit – Vladimir Putin. Indeed, articles like this are so tiresome – the truth can be so….
Straight from the:”when all your other arguments have failed, bring up Vlad Putin” guide for Remainers who wouldn’t recognise the truth if they fell over it.
Democracy has a few flaws but is infinitely better than the alternatives – to quote Churchill. There has been a quasi-democratic vote to leave the EU. That the “leavers” were influenced by the hysterical press, various mendacious politicians and, not least, Facebook chat, is not the issue. That they made what is increasingly obvious the wrong choice is also irrelevant. What is important is that this vote should NEVER have been called. Cameron did so for purely party political reasons and to save his own hide (which didn’t pan out as he expected). The fact is that we elect a government to make all the necessary decisions in the best interest of the people and the country, in the full knowledge of all the pros and cons. In this case, the Tory government failed in its duty to the citizens. They are unfit to govern – and to negotiate our withdrawal and MUST be replaced ASAP.
Yes, you are totally right that the referendum should never have been mounted. And the current government (the previous one also) has PROVED itself to be unfit to govern. And their “mandate” to negotiate a withdrawal is invalid, being based on lies, 3-line whips, threats, etc. Change government, stop Brexit, stay in the EU – or is it now too late because never again can our country be trusted?
This article rings true from start to end.
I guess I would have used stronger statements here and there, though.
For example: it seems to me that one main take home message is that whoever is claiming to “respect the referendum result” and uses this claim to justify their pro-Brexit stance or policy, is either delusional, badly wrong against all evidence or actively deceptive (in all cases: not fit for public office!).
Also, the list of lies that allowed the result is a little bit longer, and each one should be exposed; I’ve tried my best here.
Best thing of the article is the clear explanation of why Cameron’s options were very limited, due to his own policies and rhetoric; see also my take, for an extended version.
One thing that is missing (or perhaps, the only disagreement that I can find) is how Corbyn is currently busy reducing his own options for the same reason, while he’s probably thinking that he’s cleverly sitting on the fence. I fear that when the time comes, Corbyn will have supported the “respect” line for far too long, finding himself unable to change track for what will look like mere opportunism or worse…
Overall, the OP contains an exceptionally high number of the things that should be said over and over, IMHO! Thanks for writing it.
I voted to be in the European Common Market………..way back before Junker and his un-elected team became all powerful……running a huge State.
I love all Europe but UK seemed to be the only country playing by the rules…….???
Get over it !
Leave won because many of us who run small businesses would far prefer for laws governing every aspect of our lives to be made by elected MPs in Westminster who are directly accountable to us and can be removed from office. Unlike the opaque inner world of the EU.
It Is the academic world in general who can’t except the EU referendum result as for the first time in years, it might have to become more transparent about how it spends British taxpayers’ money.
Hat’s off to Jo Johnson the MP for asking Universities to justify the generous mostly taxpayer funded salaries.
I feel exasperated that people are translating leave into what they think I meant. This is not helpful as it is asserting the question was different than it was. I voted leave to leave the EU as the EU’s economic model is competing on price. We are good at quality, I want that back. Our prime minister’s translation is regurgitating the leave campaigners message of taking back control. I decided to vote leave when I knew the choice was coming and the EU saw fit to ignore our prime minister’s request for reform. Both the leave and remain campaigners lied through their teeth, their rhetoric did not change or endorse my decision. I am shocked that the referundum result has not been respected and we are to be embroiled in EU beauracracy. It is not only the worst outcome it is a shocking betrayal. Please do not blame leavers for the years of hardship to come if this current translation of Brexit does not include an exit.
If I paraphrase the referundum as a choice between a red or blue car we are now getting a purple one? I would much prefer a blue car than a purple one, I still want the red one that won the vote.
look people made a choice right or wrong it needs respecting , the suggestion of another referendum seems like we didn’t like the result hey lets try again and again maybe we will get what we want if not then lets keep trying, we must look a joke to rest of the world, the eu have a lot to lose too and people forget that and wont want a no deal, they do a lot of business to with the uk , and mps need to seriously respect what people voted for regardless of there own opinions or views
Only 36.9% of the electorate voted to leave, with 34% remain and 29% not voting. Only 26% of the population voted to leave. This is not “the voice of the people”. Coincidentally, 36.9% of the electorate voted no confidence in the PM when Tory MPs had the opportunity to express their opinion in November 2018.