What factors influence turnout in local elections in Europe? Silvia Bolgherini, Selena Grimaldi and Aldo Paparo present findings from a new study of elections in 70,000 municipalities across 18 European countries.

Electoral participation has long been a focal point within political science, yet voter turnout at the level of local politics remains largely underexplored. Despite ample research on electoral behaviour, there exists a noticeable dearth of large-scale comparative studies focusing specifically on voter turnout in municipal elections. This oversight has resulted in a significant gap in our understanding of local electoral participation, impeding the development of a comprehensive comparative framework for this fundamental aspect of contemporary politics.

The interplay between national and local drivers

Academic literature on local voting behaviour has tended to fall into one of two theoretical camps. The first, termed the “lower rank” approach, assumes that local elections are “second order” contests that are mostly affected by developments at the far more powerful national (or upper) level of politics. In contrast, a second approach, known as the “different kind” approach, emphasises the unique features and mechanisms that are inherent to local politics.

In a new book, we move beyond this dichotomy by adopting an innovative approach focused on municipal-national variation. We conduct an empirical analysis covering 18 European countries and more than 70,000 municipalities. This, coupled with theoretical insights allows us to shed light on the determinants and dynamics of local electoral participation across diverse contexts.

The key to making sense of the interplay between municipal and national electoral dynamics lies in “multi-level congruence theory”. By systematically analysing the relationship between these two levels, it is possible to uncover patterns of variation and identify factors shaping electoral participation at the local level. This allows for a departure from traditional analyses and unveils the distinct drivers of voter turnout at the local level.

This perspective challenges the traditional dichotomy between “lower rank” and “different kind” approaches by integrating these two theoretical perspectives. A more nuanced understanding of the complexities surrounding local electoral participation is thus provided, and the role of both national and local factors on municipal voter turnout is revealed. Empirical evidence suggests that the “lower rank” and “different kind” approaches to electoral participation are indeed not mutually exclusive but complementary, highlighting how local and national factors intersect to shape voter behaviour.

The roots of municipal turnout in Europe

We find that turnout levels in Europe at the local level heavily depend on municipal size and urbanisation, namely, the population of a municipality and its placement on the urban/rural scale.

The traditional pattern is that the larger the size and the higher the degree of urbanisation of a municipality, the lower its turnout at local elections. This still holds, however size and urbanisation are not interchangeable, despite this often being assumed. While it is true that small municipalities are frequently in rural areas and vice versa, being small does not necessarily imply being rural, and being medium or large does not imply being urban. Size and urbanisation are two different dimensions, yielding different, separate and independent effects on municipal turnout. Considering each of them on its own can improve our understanding of the dynamics of local electoral participation.

Indeed, EU countries can be meaningfully classified according to the different impacts of these two variables. For instance, some countries (such as Austria, Denmark, Finland, Poland, Romania and Slovakia) show a remarkable impact of both variables on local turnout, while in others (such as the Czech Republic, France, Latvia and Spain) only the degree of urbanisation is crucial to understanding the turnout level at municipal elections and its variation compared to the national level.

Size and urbanisation are two basic roots of the local vote, and they are core variables of the “different kind” approach. However municipal turnout has other roots as well. The state of national democracy and the national economy in a country, suggested by the “lower rank” approach as key factors, are equally important drivers of local turnout – although they operate differently in western and eastern Europe.

While in western Europe, a thriving economy is associated with lower municipal turnout, in eastern Europe, municipal turnout is higher when the economy is doing well. Similarly, in western Europe, a more consolidated democracy is associated with higher levels of municipal turnout, while in eastern Europe, the opposite is true. In contrast, direct mayoral elections, which give voters a larger say over municipal politics, have a clear positive effect on local electoral participation across Europe.

Overall, we find that turnout in municipal elections is lower than in national elections, corroborating the “second order elections” theory. However, other predictors associated with this theory turned out to be empirically weak. For instance, it might be expected that the national electoral cycle should affect turnout in municipal elections, with higher levels of turnout recorded immediately before and after national elections, and lower levels of turnout in the middle of the national electoral cycle. Despite this, we find that all else being equal, the national electoral cycle has no effect on local turnout levels across Europe.

Similarly, it might be expected that many municipalities holding municipal elections at the same time could boost turnout by creating the sense that a “national event” is taking place. Yet we find no evidence for this perspective. The fact many municipalities in Europe hold their municipal elections together does not seem to affect electoral participation or translate into higher levels of turnout in local elections.

What can local policymakers do?

To summarise, municipal turnout appears to be a multifaceted phenomenon, influenced by a number of distinct factors. However, these factors appear to impact on turnout according to predictable patterns suggested by both the “lower rank” and “different kind” approaches. Policymakers and practitioners seeking to enhance civic engagement and democratic participation at the local level can benefit greatly from this evidence.

The importance of municipal size and the degree of urbanisation stresses the need to consider them as separate variables and thus to envisage and tailor public policies accordingly. Factors enhancing the decisiveness of municipal elections, such as direct mayoral appointments, can boost voter participation and political efficacy.

Policy recommendations may emphasise the imperative for municipal governments to deepen their connections with citizens and territories. By prioritising direct citizen involvement and responsive governance, policymakers can cultivate vibrant and inclusive local democracies. Ultimately, the path to sustained healthy levels of political participation depends on fostering meaningful engagement between municipal governments and their constituents, thereby ensuring the enduring vitality of local democracy.

For more information, see the authors’ book, Local Electoral Participation in Europe. The Roots of Municipal Politics (Palgrave MacMillan)

Note: This article gives the views of the authors, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: Alexandros Michailidis / Shutterstock.com