The 2024 European Parliament elections in Greece will take place one year on from New Democracy’s victory in the country’s 2023 legislative election. Paris Aslanidis writes the European elections will be used to assess three important domestic political dynamics: the current electoral appeal of New Democracy, the performance of the Greek far right and competition on the left of the Greek party system.

This article is part of a series on the 2024 European Parliament elections. The EUROPP blog will also be co-hosting a panel discussion on the elections at LSE on 6 June.

The unfortunate reality of European Parliament elections in the Union’s periphery is that they have little to do with the European project itself. Instead, they function as either a costly yet accurate public opinion poll or a mere outlet for disaffected citizens to momentarily express their various grievances against their rulers.

It is thus no surprise that the lacklustre politicians who win seats in these elections lack a specific vision for Europe, seeing their tenure in Brussels as a professional sabbatical and a great opportunity to network while amassing a small personal fortune that will come in handy when they eventually return to the far more exciting domestic arena.

Greece is no exception to this trend. Meaningful policy proposals for the future of the Union or the nation’s role in it are conspicuously absent from the campaigns of both major and minor parties. Instead, the outcome of the June election will be solely used to assess three sets of domestic political dynamics.

The electoral appeal of the ruling party

The conservative New Democracy regained power in 2019 after the left-wing interlude of 2015-2019. The 40.56% that the party won in the June 2023 election rendered Kyriakos Mitsotakis a veritable hegemon in Greek politics.

However, a number of important scandals, such as the illegal wiretapping of hundreds of individuals (including journalists, politicians, jurists, business leaders and military commanders) and, most recently, the alleged mishandling of the investigation into the Tempe railroad accident that claimed fifty-seven lives, are expected to have dented the party’s support.

If New Democracy underperforms compared to the 2019 European Parliament elections or, worse, if it falls below the 30% mark, the result will energise the fragmented opposition and may be taken as a signal of the beginning of a political unravelling.

The performance of the Greek far right

Currently, three far-right parties (Greek Solution, Nike, Spartans) hold seats in the national parliament, having won a combined 12.8% of the national vote. This figure is expected to rise considerably due to the loose nature of the European vote. In particular, Greek Solution is likely to score in the double digits in many northern regions of the country, putting pressure on the government to shift more to the right.

So far, New Democracy has been fairly successful at coopting the far right by poaching important cadres or adopting parts of its policy agenda (especially on immigration). However, the party may have a hard time reversing any new inroads of the Greek far right among ultra-religious and pro-Russian voters or other pockets of its traditionally conservative support base. Mitsotakis’s resolute support for Ukraine against Russia and his recent initiative to legalise same-sex marriage despite the opposition of the mighty Greek Orthodox Church (not to mention a large number of New Democracy MPs) have burned many bridges to these constituencies.

The competition on the left

The Socialists of PASOK, the main political casualty of the Greek sovereign debt crisis, hope to recapture the top spot on the left, twelve years after SYRIZA achieved the famous “sorpasso”. SYRIZA, on the other hand, following its disastrous performance in the twin elections of May-June 2023, is desperate for a strong showing to fully establish the leadership of its new and controversial leader, Stefanos Kasselakis, finally putting an end to the internal convulsions that have driven many voters and cadres alike away from the party.

The main SYRIZA spin-off, the New Left, which was founded in March 2023, is eyeing a score above 3% (the national threshold) to retain its electoral relevance and avoid dissolution. More broadly, the final tally will be crucial for formulating a viable strategy for the left-wing opposition to effectively challenge New Democracy in the years leading up to the next national election. The expectation that the Communist Party of Greece (KKE) will gain further ground compared to the national election complicates these developments, as the Communists resolutely refuse any sort of meaningful cooperation with other left-wing forces.

Likely outcomes

Despite any short-term setbacks, the most probable scenario is that the government will manage to control the damage of the European Parliament election and take advantage of the ample time at its disposal until the next national election (slated for June 2027) to heal its wounds.

Table: Results in the 2019 European Parliament elections and 2023 legislative elections in Greece

Note: PASOK competed under the name “Movement for Change” (Κίνημα Αλλαγής) in the 2019 European Election.

New Democracy is supported by an overwhelmingly friendly media landscape, close ties to domestic business interests and the international prestige that Mitsotakis has enjoyed since assuming power. The February ruling of the European Parliament that highlighted serious deficiencies in the rule of law and fundamental rights in the country has had minimal domestic impact due to these factors and the lack of a credible alternative on the left.

Therefore, while the performance of the Greek economy is unremarkable and the government is still burdened with the obligation to maintain a primary surplus in its annual budget, the daily hardships of the sovereign debt crisis are increasingly becoming a distant memory for the average citizen. The economic ripple effects of the stellar performance of the tourism industry in the post-pandemic era, coupled with the political stability that accompanies New Democracy’s undisputed rule, has rendered a sizeable part of the population wary of political change.

Note: This article gives the views of the author, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: Alexandros Michailidis / Shutterstock.com