Progressive Slovakia won the largest share of the vote in Slovakia’s European Parliament election. Erik Lastic and Tim Haughton explain that while the attempted assassination of Prime Minister Robert Fico in May dominated headlines ahead of the election, the results largely reinforced pre-existing trends.

This article is part of a series on the 2024 European Parliament elections. The EUROPP blog also co-hosted a panel discussion on the elections at LSE on 6 June.

Slovakia rarely makes international headlines. But the shooting of Prime Minister Robert Fico in May shone a spotlight on the country’s politics, heightening interest in the outcome of last weekend’s European Parliament elections.

Along with a historically high level of turnout, the election underlined the polarised nature of Slovak politics and tested the ability of political parties to mobilise their voters. It also offered a unique chance to observe what happens if an assassination attempt on a Prime Minister interrupts a campaign just three weeks before election day.

The limited impact of the assassination attempt

The shots fired in the Central Slovak town of Handlová may have reverberated far and wide, but beyond the pausing of campaigning activity for a few days, their impact on the campaign was limited and mostly reinforced pre-existing trends.

The attack on the Slovak premier took place in a highly polarised political environment, with Fico’s opponents arguing changes in the judicial and media spheres amounted to an erosion of Slovakia’s democracy and the rule of law. After the assassination attempt, concerns were raised the attack might be used as justification to press on further and faster.

Fico’s party, Smer-SD, recalibrated its campaign messaging centred around peace in Europe and opposition to what it depicted as the EU’s warmongering. It added a new slogan, “For Robert Fico”, using its absent, wounded leader as a mobilising theme. But most other parties continued campaigning without direct reference to the shooting.

Timed for maximum effect, Fico’s first public appearance in a video released on the eve of the start of the electoral moratorium drew attention back to the shooting and dominated the news agenda. But in Fico’s 14-minute address, he mostly focused on his government’s record, reiterated Smer-SD’s campaign mantra around a sovereign foreign policy and blamed the liberal media and opposition for deepening the polarisation in Slovak society. These messages helped energise the party’s core voters and won Smer-SD a quarter of the vote (24.8%). But they also mobilised the opposition and boosted overall turnout.

Mobilising in a polarised environment 

Slovakia usually languishes at the bottom of the turnout tables for European Parliament elections, reaching a nadir of just 13.1% in 2014. But this time a third (34.5%) of voters participated, the highest level in any European Parliament election since Slovakia joined the club in 2004.

The European elections were the third time in less than a year that voters in Slovakia had had the chance to cast their ballots, following parliamentary elections in September and the presidential elections two months ago. But rather than suffer from voter fatigue, a sizeable chunk of voters turned out, pointing to the role of polarisation and effective campaigning in mobilising voters.

The socially liberal, economically centrist Progressive Slovakia (PS) won 27.8% of the vote and the most seats in the election, doubling its vote total from the last European Parliament elections. PS’s ability to garner over 410,000 votes on a 34.5% turnout underlines the ability of the party to mobilise its supporters, but also its gravitational pull. Sections of the anti-Fico side of the political debate rallied behind PS and its clarion call to defeat Fico and ensure a pro-European Slovakia, boosting the result for the Progressives, but denting support for other opposition parties.

A step away and towards the far right 

In parts of Europe, including France, Germany and Austria, the elections showed a surge in support for the far right. Third place in Slovakia’s elections was taken by the extreme right Republika party. On the one hand, its success can be seen as a continuity or reshuffling of the far-right vote. Republika’s vote share owed something to the collapse in support for the Slovak National Party (the nationalist party in the governing coalition) that won a derisory 1.9%. Moreover, Republika achieved the same percentage of the vote that the extreme right People’s Party Our Slovakia had won in 2019, from which Republika had split.

But Republika’s ability to increase its votes from the parliamentary election, even on a lower turnout, points to the party’s mobilisation campaign and the power of its messages and modes of campaigning. The party lambasted the EU, depicting it as a failing empire governed by dark forces pushing a progressive agenda on national states; a message it pumped out on Facebook, particularly by party leader and MEP Milan Uhrík, whose Facebook account is one of the most influential among Slovak politicians.

The power of personalities

The performances of PS, Smer-SD and Republika were all boosted by the political big hitters and prominent personalities on their tickets. PS, for instance, invited economist and former caretaker Prime Minister Ľudovít Ódor to lead their electoral list alongside TV personalities and EU experts. Moreover, Smer-SD placed Fico’s attack dog and pro-Russian ideologue, Ľuboš Blaha, in a prominent position alongside other notables, including a controversial personality from the disinformation media scene.

In contrast, the party list of Smer-SD’s other coalition partner, Hlas-SD, was largely devoid of prominent individuals. But Hlas-SD’s slump to 7.2% owed much to the departure of its founding leader Peter Pellegrini, who renounced his party affiliation after winning the presidential election.

Round 4, seconds out

Although it is wise to be cautious about reading too much into the results of elections where only a third of voters participated, the European Parliament elections brought mixed signals. The polarised nature of Slovak politics continued, albeit with votes redistributed in the different camps. The main beneficiaries of that redistribution were the two main parties, with PS and Smer-SD receiving over half of all votes and 11 of Slovakia’s 15 seats in the European Parliament.

Indeed, these elections may mark an emerging duopoly. Both of Fico’s coalition partners face challenges ahead to maintain a purpose and relevance, and PS’s gravitational force may increase, especially if the party downplays its social liberalism and projects itself as a home for all anti-Fico voters. But a dilution of PS’s ideational base risks weakening ties to its current crop of supporters. And as the parliamentary elections showed, Fico’s ability to win a majority is likely to be dependent on a coalition partner able to attract more moderate voters beyond the reach of Smer-SD.

The European Parliament elections were essentially “Round 3” in the battle between Fico and his opponents. Fico’s side was the clear winner of the first (parliamentary) and second (presidential) rounds, but the third round went on points to PS and the anti-Fico opposition. After three rounds in quick succession, the next national electoral test is not scheduled until autumn 2027. The performance of the parties in those elections will depend not just on the performance of the Fico government but on the ability of parties to understand the lessons from the first three rounds and to discern the signal from the noise.

Note: This article gives the views of the authors, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: Andy.LIU / Shutterstock.com