The traditional left-right divide which shaped political competition across Europe in the post-war period is increasingly being supplanted by new patterns of competition. Drawing on the experience of the 2019 European Parliament elections, Anja Durovic, Caterina Froio, Gilles Ivaldi, Sarah de Lange, Nonna Mayer and Jan Rovny explain that one of the more interesting developments is the way that […]
France will hold presidential elections in 2017, which have taken on renewed significance in the aftermath of the UK’s decision to leave the European Union. Jocelyn Evans and Gilles Ivaldi present a comprehensive look at the state of play ahead of the elections. They write that with the Socialist Party in disarray, the presidential election is the centre-right’s to […]
The shock of Sunday’s French municipal elections was the Socialist defeat, not Front National success
France held municipal elections on 23 and 30 March. As Jocelyn Evans and Gilles Ivaldi write, François Hollande’s governing Socialist Party (PS) endured a particularly disappointing result, losing many of the gains it had made in the 2008 elections. They argue that while much of the media coverage centred on the success of the Front National; the PS’s defeat, […]
In the face of on-going recession and deepening unemployment in France, François Hollande’s commitment to deficit reduction may soon put him at odds with voters.
In the few short months since his inauguration, French President François Hollande has seen his popularity plummet in the face of poor government cohesion and continuing economic crisis. Jocelyn Evans and Gilles Ivaldi argue that the French electorate now demands more than ‘A Normal President’ in the face of anaemic economic growth and high unemployment. In the four months since his inauguration French […]
Marine Le Pen has achieved the best ever result for the Front National, and now stands as the ‘kingmaker’. But we should not overestimate the impact of her performance.
For many, Front National’s Marine Le Pen’s result of 18 per cent of votes cast in this week’s French presidential elections came as a surprise. Not for Jocelyn Evans and Gilles Ivaldi who had predicted this result last month on EUROPP. As part of our continuing series covering the French elections, they argue that this result does not represent a seismic change in […]
Electoral forecasts predict that Marine Le Pen will capture 17 per cent of the vote in the upcoming French presidential elections, failing to outperform her father’s strongest result.
How many voters will support Front National candidate Marine Le Pen in the upcoming French Presidential Elections? Based on a prediction model informed by unemployment and immigration data Jocelyn Evans and Gilles Ivaldi argue that Le Pen will not be as successful as is currently anticipated by many observers. Six months ago, French political commentators began talking of an electoral ‘blue wave’ […]