Since the launch of Israel’s offensive into Gaza in late October 2023, the burning question in the Middle East and across the globe has been when the war would end. Although the announced offensive on Rafah is interpreted by some to mean the beginning of the end of the military operation, many of those same commentators also said the same thing about the attacks on Khan Yunis in early 2023. Nothing is certain in Israeli politics, especially given the current leadership: this is true without even mentioning the humanitarian crisis already playing out–and only bound to intensify–as the tiny region of Rafah is currently temporary home to over a million Gazan refugees.
When trying to answer these questions, it is important to acknowledge a simple fact: there is a dichotomous “before” and “after” October 7th in Israeli politics, not unlike September 11th for the USA. This is especially true for Benjamin Netanyahu, or Bibi, Israel’s current and long-time Prime Minister. The security of the Israeli people is the paramount task of every Israeli administration. Someone has to take responsibility for the massacre of October 7th, and a poll from early January shows that only 15 per cent of the Israeli population wants Netanyahu to stay in power after the war. When trying to ascertain when some kind of uneasy truce can be reached in Gaza, analyzing Netanyahu’s position offers the most telling insights.
There is an old truism in Israeli society that has remained a guiding principle during this war: never to change leaders in wartime. For the current Prime Minister, as long as the war in Gaza continues, he can maintain his unity government (which includes many potential rivals such as Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot) and preach national unity. This not only shields him from immense political pressure but also from legal threats as well. Since 2020, he has been on trial for corruption for accepting foreign gifts worth hundreds of thousands of Israeli shekels. A verdict will likely not be reached while Netanyahu guides Israel through the war.
As soon as the war ends, the clock on his premiership starts ticking, and the timer is short. However, he already faces immense pressure, even while Prime Minster. The families of the over 100 remaining hostages are a vocal and well-organized group and are faulting Bibi for not bringing their loved ones home. Although there are talks to freeze hostilities for a longer period in exchange for the hostages, Netanyahu has so far maintained that all of Hamas needs to be destroyed before such a deal can be entertained. He recently rejected a potential deal right after meeting U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who had pushed for the exchange. It is questionable whether Netanyahu intends to free the remaining hostages through a deal; that would likely require him to pause the war and move into uncertain political waters.
Not all of the masterminds of the attack on Israel have been caught. Most notably, Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif are still at large, likely hiding in the tunnels somewhere below southern Gaza. Additionally, polls show a majority of Israel’s population disavows a potential exchange of all the remaining hostages for all the Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails–a proposal within the realm of reality considering that Gilad Shalid, a single Israeli hostage, was exchanged for over 1000 Palestinians in 2011.
Once the war ends, Netanyahu will be under pressure from practically all sides: from the radical right, he faces the likes of Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. The two ministers recently pushed for a radical extension of Israel’s settlements and an outright rejection of US plans for any Palestinian Authority involvement in a conference in Gaza. Bibi needs their parties to maintain a majority in the Knesset. From the centre, the aforementioned Eisenkot and Ganz will immediately push for snap elections to dethrone Netanyahu once and for all. Meanwhile, from within the ranks of his own Likud Party, the current defence minister Yoav Gallant (already fired once in 2022, only to be brought back after massive public outrage), has steadily carved out a distinct political profile of his own.
The question of the postwar governance in Gaza, and Israel’s role in the region more broadly, remains. Under President Biden, the US is aiming for a grand bargain in the region, establishing the Palestinian Authority as part of the civilian government in Gaza. Germany, one of Israel’s most important allies, supports these diplomatic efforts by the Biden administration, so far without success: when Chancellor Scholz’s foreign policy advisor Jens Plötner recently visited Jerusalem, his Israeli counterpart Ron Dermer bluntly rejected the German proposal for Gaza.
Part of the deal to get Israel to agree would be Saudi Arabia recognizing the State of Israel, strengthening its position internationally, and building an alliance against Iran. The most obvious objection is Netanyahu’s steadfast refusal to let the PA into Gaza–the lack of democratic legitimacy or actual authority of Mohammed Abbas’ administration notwithstanding. Lastly, the US elections loom large in the background, with the potential to change the situation fundamentally with a Trump return to the White House.
These internal and external pressures paint a picture of a Prime Minister whose room for manoeuvre is practically nonexistent. One thing can be said for certain: The political landscape in Israel is facing a seismic reshuffle within the next few months. Nothing will ever be the same as it was before October 7th. As for when the war will end, that depends on how long Netanyahu can dodge his detractors.
By Linn L. Junge
Linn L. Junge is a student at Sciences Po Paris, and writes about issues of international law and politics.
Cover image source: Benjamin Netanyahu Receives Hudson’s Herman Kahn Award by the Hudson Institute via Wikimedia Commons
