There are many ways to estimate the likely outcome of an election, from projections and models based on polls to citizen forecasts. Another approach is to survey experts for their predictions and, writes Joe Greenwood, the Political Studies Association recently did just that in relation to the general election. Moving beyond the current polling figures, the experts anticipate a […]
In this general election, Britain faces a paradigm shift, argues Abby Innes: the essential choice is between a government of the economic hard right that will complete the already-failed supply-side revolution of the last forty years, and a government willing to implement a Green New Deal that in turn will end the era of Neoliberalism. She writes that we […]
Why bother to vote in a safe seat, knowing your vote won’t make a difference to that constituency’s outcome? Jonathan Birch offers five key reasons why voting makes a difference to the legitimacy and stability of parliamentary democracy, even when individual seats don’t change hands.
Elections can be pretty demoralising if you live in a safe seat. Where I live, […]
The star of the show in 2017’s general election polling landscape was YouGov’s MRP model, which produced remarkably accurate estimates of the results in seats across the country. The equivalent model for this year’s election, explains Joe Greenwood, produces quite similar estimates to approaches based on the average figures from standard national polls.
At an excellent event on ‘Reading the […]
The real problem behind the ongoing housing crisis is unresponsive supply, write Paul Cheshire and Christian Hilber. They explain that the solution is not hard to fathom: to build more houses, there first has to be land, and then an incentive to build on that land. This solution nevertheless requires radical change in the inertia of UK housing policy.
Since […]
Tony Hockley argues that the Conservative Party manifesto pledges for health and social care offer a sensible approach to NHS funding.
One of the most telling ad-lib comments by the Prime Minister at the Conservative manifesto launch was his claim that NHS spending increases would be done: ‘in a sensible way’. For all the heat in current politics, the Conservatives […]
With a few weeks of campaigning under their belts, and the manifestos released, we might expect to see shifts in appraisals of party leaders and policy positions. But is such movement just a result of voters bringing their assessments into line with their party support as election day looms? In his third blog of the campaign, Joe Greenwood considers […]
Experts predict that the general election will be tighter than expected
This general election is a choice between the end of democracy or the end of neoliberalism
Forecasting the 2019 General Election using the PM and the Pendulum model
Five reasons to vote in a safe seat
Citizen forecasting 2019: a big win for the Conservatives
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Can the new parliament hold the Prime Minister to account?
Can the new parliament hold the Prime Minister to account?
With the return to a traditional single-party majority, Boris Johnson’s government will be invoking a strong mandate for its policy programme. Ruxandra Serban explains that, while the UK Parliament is well-equipped – better than most other parliaments – to question the Prime Minister on various matters, this accountability relationship can only function if Johnson follows certain established conventions. His […]