Education funding will take centre stage in the run-up to the general election. Real-terms funding cuts have been predicted on a potentially large scale. In London’s Royal Borough of Kingston upon Thames, ‘The Campaign to Stop School Cuts’ data predict such real-terms cuts to state-school funding. Peter Finn explores the tough and often awkward choices that, if the data prove accurate, will be forced on school leaders, politicians and political parties.

As a key political battleground, education is never far from the headlines. Moreover, political parties bend over backwards to argue that they are best placed as custodians of the education system. In the coming weeks and months, claims and counterclaims around education, and specifically education funding, are likely to be prominent as political parties across the spectrum gear up for a general election due by January 2025.

In this context, this piece analyses the potential scale of these cuts, using data from ‘The Campaign to Stop School Cuts’, which predict real-terms cuts to the funding of state schools within the Royal Borough of Kingston upon Thames. I here explore the tough choices that, if the data prove accurate, will be forced on school leaders and the awkward choices such cuts will create for politicians and political parties. Intriguingly, within the debate on funding, one can start to see the outlines of education policies that could form part of a coalition agreement between the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats should one emerge from the next election.

Royal Borough of Kingston upon Thames

Tables 1-3 were developed by combining a list of schools taken from an official council brochure containing a list of state schools in the Royal Borough of Kingston upon Thames, with school-level data from The Campaign to Stop School Cuts. As seen in Table 1, the data suggest that real-terms cuts will equal almost £5 million between the 2023-24 and 2024-25 academic years.

Table 1. Potential real-terms education spending cuts in the Royal Borough of Kingston upon Thames

Turning specifically to infant, junior and primary levels, accounting for data from 35 of the 46 state schools in the Royal Borough of Kingston upon Thames, Table 2 below suggests that 32 of these 35 schools (over 90 per cent) will face real-terms funding cuts in the 2024-25 academic year as opposed to 2023-24. The cumulative amount of these potential real-terms cuts is £2,258,817. If the three schools not predicted to have a shortfall were to, in fact, have rises in real-time funding, this would lower the overall total slightly, though would do nothing about the impact of the potential real-terms cuts predicted for other schools.

Table 2. Infant, junior and primary schools

One interesting aspect not captured by Table 2 is differences in per pupil figures. Exempting the three schools showing no potential real-terms cuts, the lowest amount for those showing a potential shortfall is £43 for St Mary’s CofE Primary School. There are, meanwhile, more than a dozen schools showing a per-pupil impact of more than £200, and one, Tolworth Junior School, facing a per-pupil figure of £335.

In the case of secondary schools, Table 3 accounts for 11 of the 46 state schools in the Royal Borough of Kingston upon Thames. Collectively, the data suggest secondary schools in the borough will face real-terms funding cuts of almost £2.7 million. Every school faces over £180,000 of potential real-terms funding cuts, with the lowest being £185,674 for The Tiffin Girls’ School, and the highest being £292,359 for Tolworth Girls’ School. Only two secondary schools face less than a £200,000 real-terms cut in spending.

Table 3. Secondary schools

Reflecting general higher spending on secondary school pupils, the average figures per pupil in Table 3 is over £100 higher than in Table 2. However, as in Table 2, though there is an average across the schools of almost £278, large disparities exist between schools. At the lower end The Tiffin Girls’ School faces a (still significant) real-terms drop of £207, compared with £444 for Chessington School.

Broader picture

Crucially, while tables 1-3 show the potential for real-terms funding cuts of almost £5 million to education spending within the Royal Borough of Kingston upon Thames, if the data proves accurate then these figures will reflect a similar picture elsewhere. In the North West, for example, “41 of 46 schools in the Weaver Vale constituency will face funding cuts next year”. Labour MP Mike Amesbury said, “the last thing schools in Weaver Vale need are more cuts…they desperately need more funding.”

Turning to the national picture, meanwhile, a recent report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies noted that current funding plans “would leave the purchasing power of school spending per pupil in 2024–25 still about 3 per cent lower than in 2009–2010” in real terms.

Impacts and choices

Given the figures involved, if the data from The Campaign to Stop School Cuts prove correct, they will clearly force hard choices on school leaders. They could be met in various ways such as not replacing staff when they leave, cutting extracurricular activities, lessening student support or, in the scenario one imagines is most likely, a combination of these and other measures. For those with (relatively) small predicted falls, such an approach may work in the short term. Yet, one wonders if this would work for schools such as the 13 in Kingston facing larger compound financial pressures of real-terms cuts of over £250 per pupil?

The figures also provide awkward choices for politicians, both the governing Conservative Party and those in opposition. For the Conservative Party, ahead of a general election there is a need to show a plan to manage effectively a system they have run since 2010. Yet, rather than stability, thirteen years of Conservative rule has seen 10 education secretaries, with recent issues including prolonged strikes and weak concrete keeping some schools closed. Moreover, as Chancellor in 2021, Rishi Sunak committed to “restoring per-pupil funding to 2010 levels in real terms”. This means that The Campaign to Stop School Cuts data and the analysis from the Institute for Fiscal Studies noted above is particularly awkward for the Prime Minister.

Opposition parties, meanwhile, need to highlight flaws with the current system and funding models as they perceive them, as well as put forward alternative solutions. One tricky aspect of this for the Labour Party is that they wish to demonstrate that they are a government-in-waiting, with a key pillar of this being a desire to highlight their economic competence (as defined by a relatively restrained use of public funds) and so large scale funding commitments are unlikely to occur. Meaning the Labour Party will continue to face questions about how, if elected, they would meet the targets for education set out in their ‘Missions-Driven Government’ plans.

It will be interesting nationally and in the context on local Kingston politics if, as is plausible, the next election leads to a hung parliament. The constituency of Kingston and Surbiton is, for instance, held by Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey, while the nearby constituency of Twickenham is held by Liberal Democrat Spokesperson for Education Munira Wilson. At her Liberal Democrat Conference speech in September, Wilson placed emphasis on making tailored tutoring “a permanent fixture in England’s schools”. Should the Liberal Democrats find themselves in some sort of governing agreement or coalition with the Labour Party, and one presumes it involves a re-elected Davey and Wilson, following the next election (one presumes the Liberal Democrats would not currently countenance another coalition with the Conservative Party), a policy built around tutoring could provide a relatively bipartisan part of a coalition or governing agreement that could, if done well, give both parties a policy success to sell to their base and the broader electorate.

All articles posted on this blog give the views of the author(s), and not the position of LSE British Politics and Policy, nor of the London School of Economics and Political Science.

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