Bernard Grofman

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    Why the Democrats’ likely poor midterm performance this year may be of their own and Joe Biden’s making

Why the Democrats’ likely poor midterm performance this year may be of their own and Joe Biden’s making

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As the November midterm elections approach, polling shows that the Democratic Party may well lose control of the US House and Senate. Bernard Grofman looks at why the Democratic Party – and President Joe Biden – may have fallen out of favor with much of the American public.

In a recent article, Yulia Pechenkina and Helmut Norpoth of SUNY Stony […]

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    Bellwether counties are mostly a matter of chance and are now poor predictors of presidential election results.

Bellwether counties are mostly a matter of chance and are now poor predictors of presidential election results.

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Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of […]

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