Polls suggest the Liberal Democrats might be on course for their greatest electoral result yet. David Cutts and Andrew Russell make the case for how the Liberal Democrats can win big, but warn that the party’s resources are limited, and an absence of a local presence in many regions means they might end up spreading themselves too thin and ultimately repeating the disastrous results of the 2019 election.
Since 2019, the Liberal Democrats have experienced a renaissance, reaffirming once again that their electoral credibility and political fortunes are tied explicitly to those of other parties. With the Labour brand detoxified post-Corbyn, politically positioning themselves as an anti-Conservative party comes with few downsides. This allows the Liberal Democrats to “hoover up” dissatisfied Conservative voters, while simultaneously appealing to erstwhile Labour supporters to lend them their support in places where they, not Labour, are the main challengers to the Conservatives. The results, so far, have led to historic by-election victories and a steady replenishment of their local electoral base.
Little wonder then that a recent MRP poll has predicted a Liberal Democrat haul of 67 seats which, if replicated on July 4th, would be its best performance in a general election. But adopting an expansive strategy, aiming for as many seats as possible, is not without danger. It clearly risks spreading themselves too thinly, repeating the mistakes of 2019 and ultimately falling short in many close contests. History may beckon but the party could end up just chasing rainbows.
The case for a successful campaign
The initial signs though look positive. First, the Liberal Democrats’ campaign has so far encountered few hiccups. The strategy of leader Ed Davey performing stunts to attract media attention has worked with the party using this to highlight Conservative failure and provide ‘hard edge’ policy solutions including free personal care and reforming the carers’ allowance (something Davey himself is personally invested in), removing the two-child benefit limit and ending sewage dumping by water companies. The pledge to re-join the Single Market rather than immediately re-joining the European Union marks a post-Brexit reality, and strategically seems designed to make it easier to appeal to Conservative waverers who voted in Leave in 2016.
The Liberal Democrats’ national, local and digital campaign appears coordinated and laser-focused which is in stark contrast to recent general elections.
To make significant electoral headway against the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats need to unite geographies and win “Blue Wall constituencies – predominantly commuter belt seats that take in the home counties of Surrey, Hertfordshire, and Buckinghamshire, and even stretch into Oxfordshire and Cambridgeshire – as well as seats where they have a history of electoral success. The latter includes previous party strongholds in the south-west and along the south coast of England. Key targets have been identified and ‘local champions’ installed long in advance with many seats subject to continuous place-based campaigning boosted by local election success since 2019. Simply put, the Liberal Democrats’ national, local and digital campaign appears coordinated and laser-focused which is in stark contrast to recent general elections.
The recent spike in Reform support is also aiding the Liberal Democrats, particularly in Brexit leaning seats as incumbent Conservatives increasingly struggle to keep the right flank intact. Evidence from YouGov suggests that three-quarters of Reform voters have an unfavourable view of both the Conservatives and Rishi Sunak. So the prospect of convincing these voters to return back to the Conservative fold looks unlikely.
In these key contests against the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives increasingly face a triple whammy of a highly active “local Liberal Democrat champion”; their 2019 vote haemorrhaging with centre-right waverers moving to the Liberal Democrats and their right flank turning to Reform; and Labour voters lending their tactical vote to the Liberal Democrats to defeat the incumbent Conservative. The upshot is a seemingly unprecedented Liberal Democrat advance in not only these battlegrounds but across a number of traditional Tory strongholds.
The challenge ahead: resources and local presence
Yet the size of electoral task facing the Liberal Democrats is still substantial. Of the 98 seats where the Liberal Democrats are notionally in second place, 85 are against the Conservatives. Based purely on 2019 notional marginality and assumptions that both taking seats off Labour and winning from third place where Labour is the main challenger are unlikely, a swing of up to 15% could potentially net the party 49 seats (46 from the Conservatives), notwithstanding the caveats regarding uniform swing.
For historical context, in 1997, when Labour last won a landslide victory, only in 13 of the 30 seats gained did the party record swings of 10 per cent or more away from the Conservative incumbent, and it was in excess of 15 per cent in only four of these seats. And this is in an election where the Liberal Democrats polled nearly 17 per cent of the national vote, much larger than the projected Liberal Democrat vote in current polls. Even accounting for ruthless targeting, history seems against the Liberal Democrats making significant electoral ground in one election.
Figure 1: Classification of Liberal Democrat battleground seats versus the Conservatives (2019 Liberal Democrat notional vote by Marginality)
Key = Orange: Historic LD seats; Blue: ‘Blue Wall’; Black: No History of LD success
As Figure 1 shows, to “win big” the Liberal Democrats will need to make ground in Conservative strongholds where the party has historically failed to gain a significant foothold. In some of these areas, local council gains post 2019 have acted as a springboard for activism which in turn can be used as a platform for parliamentary success. Yet credibility remains pivotal.
If resources are diverted in the chase for “possibilities”, it could conceivably undermine the party’s prospects elsewhere. It’s a gamble which the Liberal Democrats have lost before in the not too distant past.
There are serious question marks about whether voters who want the Conservatives out will be aware that the Liberal Democrats represent the most viable vehicle for change. While the party will employ national and digital targeted messages to promote tactical voting, there is no substitute for a local presence and it remains uncertain whether the Liberal Democrats will have the local infrastructure, activists, know-how and experienced campaigners in these traditional Conservative seats to get them over the line. Moreover, as the list of potential gains expand, resources are likely to become increasingly stretched. The party does not possess the financial firepower of the two main parties so doubts persist whether the centre has the manpower or scope to fund national assistance to a growing list of competitive contests.
Local “away days” – where canvassers from outside a target seat arrive en masse to campaign – are integral data opportunities and vital for voter mobilisation on polling day. These will become less feasible as the number of seats ‘in play’ grows therefore increasing the resource strain on the centre and the need for digital material to fill the gap. If resources are diverted in the chase for “possibilities”, it could conceivably undermine the party’s prospects elsewhere. It’s a gamble which the Liberal Democrats have lost before in the not too distant past.
The temptation to exploit Conservative woes and “go for broke” amplifies as the polls double down on the possibility of significant Liberal Democrat gains.
The 2024 election could be an historic moment for the Liberal Democrats. Returning to the top table of British politics increasingly looks a reality but winning the big prize could be transformational for the party. The temptation to exploit Conservative woes and “go for broke” amplifies as the polls double down on the possibility of significant Liberal Democrat gains. Yet, as we show, the obstacles remain sizeable. And given that the Conservative strategy is now increasingly focused on defending the “Blue Wall” and persuading 2019 supporters not to jump ship, late Tory momentum in these key seats cannot be ruled out. Better, surely, to ensure no surprises. Focus on longstanding targets and don’t chase rainbows.
All articles posted on this blog give the views of the author(s), and not the position of LSE British Politics and Policy, nor of the London School of Economics and Political Science.
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