Posted by Chris Gilson and Patrick Dunleavy
Latest Poll Information for 6 April
| Party | BBC Poll Tracking | LSE Poll Tracking |
|---|---|---|
| Per cent | Per cent | |
| Last Change | 5 April | 6 April |
| Labour | 31 | 29 |
| Conservatives | 41 | 39 |
| Liberal Democrats | 18 | 20 |
| Other Parties | 10 | 12 |
| Tory Lead | +10 | +10 |
On the day Gordon Brown finally calls the election for 6 May (as predicted), our measure has the gap between Labour and the Conservatives widen further to 10 points, with the Conservatives on 39 per cent and Labour on 29 per cent. Yet an ICM phone poll published this morning offers a strong disagreement, showing Labour four points higher than our measure at 33, and the Conservatives lower on 37 – back to the narrowing gap of two weeks ago. We will have to wait and see if this poll finds any other support, or perhaps reflects some extra difficulty in contacting Tory householders over the Bank Holiday weekend.
Some of the other recent polls with big Tory leads seem to have been projecting very low Liberal Democrat ratings and the support for Other parties has been fluctuating from 10 to 16 per cent, suggesting that the polls are having some difficulties in getting any fix on them. Support for the Lib Dems on our measure is relatively steady on 20 per cent, but support for Other parties has fallen somewhat to 12 per cent, down from the 13 and 14 per cent figures from earlier this month
Finally, on methods, it is important to note that YouGov has begun adjusting its published vote shares by omitting people who say they are not certain to vote, a move that tends to boost the Tories up 1 point and Labour down 1 or 2 points, so their results have a discontinuity starting at the weekend.
