It used to be that case that Wales was distinguished by the strength of the Labour vote and the presence of the Welsh nationalist vote. Today, however, the conditions are perfect for Wales to be completely absorbed into the British mainstream, explains Daniel Evans. And this means that chances are high that Wales will vote for a departure from the EU.
A recent YouGov poll on the EU and Brexit has highlighted regional differences in opinions within the UK. More respondents in England wanted a Brexit, and thought the EU was a ‘bad thing’. The Scots were generally in favour of staying in the EU, and had a far more positive view of the EU than the English. The Welsh were somewhere in the middle: slightly in favour of staying in and slightly more positive about the EU than negative (as shown by Roger Scully).
Wales as a pro-EU bastion of social democracy and cosmopolitanism
Every nation has particular underlying myths. In Wales, it is the notion that it has innate social-democratic tendencies. Its social democratic ways are implicitly contrasted with the right-wing England. Attitudes towards Europe have always been bound up in this crude binary, with England’s perceived Euroscepticism seen as evidence of conservatism and chauvinism, with Wales’ traditionally more sympathetic views on the EU an extension of its social democratic tendencies.
The notion that Wales has always been an enclave of social democracy contains a grain of truth. During the 1970s and 1980s, political scientists identified the ‘Welsh effect’ similar to the ‘neighbourhood effect’ whereby once demographics and class were controlled for, Welsh political affiliation and voting patterns remained stubbornly different from England. Wales was distinguished by the strength of the Labour vote and the presence of the Welsh nationalist vote.
The reasons for this Welsh distinctiveness were the presence of local political and cultural apparatuses which were absent elsewhere in the UK. In the Southern valleys, these developed around heavy industry and the Labour movement that ensured the dominance of a distinct local political culture (Labourism). In the Welsh speaking rural areas to the North and West, the local dominance of Plaid Cymru, coupled with a localised prominence Welsh language, ensured a similarly distinct way of thinking which ostensibly remained outside the mainstream of UK public opinion.
These unique local political and cultural dynamics were ultimately believed to inoculate Wales, preventing it from being completely absorbed by the dominant Anglo-American culture and ultimately contributing to Wales’ political distinctiveness from the rest of the UK. Hence Wales’ proximity to England in this EU opinion poll, coupled with the rise of UKIP and the Tories across Wales, renders reassessing the country’s political allegiances.
There are some issues which are unique to Wales which can help to explain Wales’ ‘in-between-ness’ with regard to the EU. Some of these issues aid convergence to the mainstream of UK public opinion, whilst some will contribute to Wales remaining slightly different to England (at least in the short term).
One partyism and Labour’s influence
Wales’ complete political and cultural domination by the Labour party cannot be underestimated. Despite a few wobbles, Labour remain the hegemonic power in Wales and people (still) listen to what they say. Labour’s political dominance in Wales is buttressed by significant fortifications or ‘trenches’ (as Gramsci puts it). The party has significant support within the nexus of the (small) Welsh media, civil society and academia. What this means is that Labour MPs, AMs, journalists and intellectuals get more column inches and airtime than anyone else in Wales and therefore enjoy an unprecedented platform for their views. Welsh MPs don’t get criticised or questioned when they speak on TV, but are simply allowed to parrot the party line, which is pro-EU. As long as Labour remain stridently pro-EU, this will have influence on how Wales as a whole thinks about the topic.
Poverty, FDI, jobs and EU objective one funding
Wales remains the poorest region of the UK and this is unlikely to change anytime soon. The poverty and the ‘desperation’ associated with being a ‘lumpen region’ can influence attitudes to the EU in Wales in a way that it would not in a more affluent nation. Labour in Wales remain pro-EU also because it gains short term political capital from attracting foreign direct investment – and therefore (poorly paid and temporary) jobs to Wales. The EU represents a significant source of this investment.
Many parts of Wales have, since 2000, qualified for EU objective one funding– regeneration money which is earmarked for the poorest regions of the EU. Whilst the Labour government has generally wasted this money (£6 billion) on white elephants, some of it has built community centres and funded other valuable assets and initiatives in Wales. These buildings have placards on the outside bearing the EU symbol – ‘paid for by EU objective one funding’. These initiatives make the EU tangible in areas where it would otherwise remain an abstraction. Crucially, they also stand as symbols of EU ‘benevolence’, which are particularly pertinent given the British state’s continued neglect of Wales.
So whilst in England, the EU is portrayed as annoying bureaucrats, in Wales the EU is instead often portrayed as a benevolent investor bringing much needed jobs and facilities. The association between the EU and jobs/money exerts significant influence over Welsh attitudes towards the EU.
UKIP on the march
Whilst Wales’ deprivation can lead to viewing the EU as saviour, it can, conversely, also lead to the EU being scapegoated. Democracy in Wales is in trouble. First, the legacy of one-partyism has destroyed the point in voting on a Welsh level: in most regions of South Wales at least, whoever you vote for in Wales, Labour win. Second, moving to the UK level, the electoral maths of the British system means that whoever one votes for in Wales ultimately cannot impact the UK elections.
The lack of a Welsh national media means that people don’t understand the (highly complex) role of the Assembly. Consequently, voting turnout in Assembly elections is very low and Wales’ traditionally high turnout in general elections has been in decline since the welfare state ended, dipping under the UK average for the first time in 2005.
This mix of deprivation and political alienation is a fertile breeding ground for radicalisation and helps explain the rise of UKIP in former solidly Labour areas: people in Wales are not naturally social democrats, nor are they naturally radical – desperation leaves them susceptible to those who can appear to be ‘straight talking’ and offering a clearly defined enemy: the EU and immigrants.
In-migration and Wales’ changing demographics
It is estimated that over the last 10 years over a million English people have moved into Wales. As of now 20.8% of Welsh population is English-born. To put this demographic shift in context, this is the highest percentage of foreign born population in the EU apart from Luxembourg. As well as being destructive to the Welsh language in-migration can impact attitudes towards the EU in two ways. First, the constant in-migration of people from England into former Welsh speaking communities and the simultaneous out-migration of young Welsh speakers has a cumulative impact: it erodes the local political and cultural apparatuses which previously incubated/fostered the alternative political and linguistuc culture which ultimately produced distinct political opinions. Second, whilst migrants from England are a diverse group, in terms of voting statistics they generally tend to be more conservative and have emerged as more likely to vote UKIP. This is unsurprising given that many in-migrants are products of ‘white flight’.
Visit Wales. Photo under Creative Commons licence
Conclusion
Ultimately, the conditions are perfect for Wales to be completely absorbed into the British mainstream. The local political and cultural dynamics which used to inoculate Wales from the dominant narratives emanating from England are locked into an inexorable spiral of decline. Unlike Scotland, Wales has no national media and no distinct civil society. Unlike Scotland, Wales has no ‘public sphere’: there are no ‘national conversations’ about anything, let alone the EU.
It is highly probable that in future, there will be no Welsh distinctiveness, no ‘Welsh effect’. Wales will vote like England. The current close political alignment with England over the EU is merely one manifestation of this convergence. The influence of the Labour Party and the lingering perception that the EU means jobs can delay this convergence but they cannot prevent Wales’ acculturation in the long run.
This blog represents the views of the author and not those of the BrexitVote blog, nor the LSE.
Dr Daniel Evans is an educational researcher at the Wales Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Data & Methods (WISERD), Cardiff University. He works on Welsh devolution and the political economy of Wales; Welsh national identity and everyday ethnicity; the Welsh language in Wales; Place, belonging and the role of material culture. @DrDanEvans
Some interesting points but I have a few problems with this article. It overlooks that Wales is part of the United Kingdom and has never been culturally or linguistically pure. As it stands we are one country and if 20% of our population is English born, then is that really a surprise? Factor in how 50% of the Welsh population live close to the border with many accessing English hospitals, is that really a surprise? It doesn’t seem that you, or anyone else for that matter, wants to talk about just how integrated Wales has always been with England. Our princes all went to English universities, spoke English, mingled with Normans and English and Welsh has never been spoken by more than 850,000 people at any given time. Indeed, the population of Wales was a mere 250,000 when the Acts of Union came to be in 1542.
I’m not saying that English migration into Wales doesn’t change things, but how many of the million or so English people who move here are students? Or move to Cardiff? Or move to set up their dream organic farm only to realise that locals aren’t interested and move back to England after three years? You bemoan young people for leaving Welsh speaking communities, but there’s no economy there to keep anyone in those areas! We’ve all got an education and have had to move to the towns and cities to get work. It’s nothing new.
Luxembourg may be in the EU but I would argue the Balkan countries are more relevant comparisons. 30% of Macedonia is made up of Albanians. 45% of people who live in Montenegro are Serbs. Bosnia-Herzegovina is split between three different ethnicities.
As for the EU, I do expect the ‘remain’ vote to be narrower than Scotland but Wales will still vote to stay in.
Also just to add: Some of our most prominent Welsh figures are born in England: Steve Eaves, Dafydd Wigley, Ceri Wyn Jones, Also, Estonia has 25% ethnic Russians, Latvia up to 35%… We’re not a special case.
“Some of our princes went to university in England” ? ahem .. could you clarify which one Llewelyn ein Llyw olaf attended, slightly naive take on the dire situation
Interesting article but misses out on many key ‘Welsh Realities’ especially the Orwellian World created by the Welsh speaking First Ministers who have hijacked the Labour Party with an agenda to promote and impose a cultural language of the few upon the many.
This is a Social Engineering concept unparalleled in any democracy but synonymous with many dark elements of contemporary European history (Nazism & Stalinism come to mind in this context)!
The fact that this policy is damaging Wales is a Taboo subject in the Welsh media – We now have 7% of fluent Welsh speakers who have been granted a ‘More Equal Status’ and immense privileges via the public employment whilst 13% of Wengish speakers and 80% of non-Welsh speakers are frozen out and designated Second Class Citizens – Welsh Media SILENT and complicit!
Oh its Mr Glasnost again peddling lies, please back up your totally crazy acusations with real facts ,
Thank you for your comments. Dafydd- I agree with you that in-migration is an extremely complex debate which requires significant caveats. For example, as you say there is the issue of the hospitals on the border and so a significant number of the ‘English born’ will in fact not be ‘in-migrants’. Other academics in Wales- Graham Day and Howard Davis in particular- have produced excellent, detailed analysis of in-migration to rural Wales and these works should be central to the debate. My point is simply that for all that complexity, the constantly shifting demographic- and this is an issue which plaid will not touch because of the seimon glyn affair and which wil therefore never stop- cannot fail to impact on Wales’ linguistic, cultural and ultimately political make up (http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/lords/1989/apr/19/welsh-speaking-communities)
Some further caveats and comments.
On social media it has been pointed out that ‘Wales’ and ‘England’ are complex entities and I shouldn’t speak as if England is some homogenous whole. When I say England or the mainstream I simply mean trends and swings which occur in England will impact on Wales, so if the Tories march across England they will march across Wales, the same with Labour. Of course the residual strength of lAbour in Wales means that labour will always take some shifting.
To contextualise my work, it is based on Balsom’s ‘Three Wales Model’ (1985), which divides Wales into three distinct cultural and political entities: y Fro gymraeg; Welsh Wales (the valleys); and ‘British Wales’ (the coastal belt and borders). The first two areas remained different to the British ‘mainstream’ (meaning when England had particular voting trends or swings, these areas remained unaffected) whilst the latter British Wales was always affected by these swings because it had no local political or cultural apparatuses to inoculate it.
So there has always been a spatial aspect to all this which should be considered now.
Balsom predicted that Welsh Wales would gradually bleed into British Wales witn the decline of heavy industry. In fact this area has proved more resilient than YFG, which has been eroded by in migration and out migration to a far greater extent. What will happen in YFG is that a core of nationalist votes will remain, but that this will gradually be supplanted by whichever party is dominant in Westminster/England. In Welsh Wales the labour vote will be hard to budge because of the entrenched local labour apparatuses in this area, but this area is susceptible to populist parties. British Wales as ever will be impacted by the trends in England.
The real losers in this are Plaid Cymru. Under a normal political system this party would be a natural political alternative to Labour and benefactor of the stasis in Wales, but they are a) starved of the oxygen of publicity by a lack of media in Wales. So people vote ukip because that is who they see on tv; and also b) they are the victim of a decades long smear campaign by labour in Wales which has really influenced many people and has made them essentially unelectable in the south (in my opinion).
Very good article and one with which I totally agree. Voting trends which you have highlighted were evident particularly in the devolution referendum where the highest NO votes were in areas with high level of English immigration. Plaid Cymru failed to capture their main target seat of Ceredigion in the general election which did not surprise me due to the fact that nearly 40% of the population are now English born which resulted in Ceredigion dropping below the 50% level for Welsh speakers in the 2011 census. In next years Assembly elections Plaid will not make any gains and will struggle to hold Mon and Ceredigion constituencies and will lose out in the regional seats as a result of the UKIP vote. Plaid will end up with 8 or 9 AMs and this is because they have taken what they believe to be the more popularist path instead of the Seimon Glyn path. One of the other respondents referred to countries such as Latvia and Estonia which has high levels of Russian people and that should include Lithuania also. We have seen what has happened in the Ukraine with Russians living in the Ukraine taking up arms and declaring cessation backed by the Russian government and this could very well happen in the Baltic states too. This is nothing new as we only need to look across the Irish sea where the vast majority of the Irish population voted for independence and the protestant immigrants took up arms threatening a civil war in Ireland. As a result of this the British province of Ulster was created against the democratic wishes of the majority and we have a similar situation today in the Ukraine which mirrors exactly what happend in Ireland. Hawaii became the 50th state of the USA despite the fact that the native Hawaians voted against it. This was because at the time of the vote the native Hawaians were a small minority in their own land. Plaid will never achieve what the SNP achieved as in Scotland less than 10% of its population are immigrants as opposed to 25% in Wales with the vast majority of those being from England.
Communication is the weakness, at last nights meeting of Nigel Farage and Carwyn Jones, what was failed to be pointed out, and an error to my mind, is that once outside the EU the money that Carwyn Jones kept telling was EU money would once again be our money, and I suggest that for at least a period of resettlement post Brexit would not change. That neither of the present leading political parties and the governmental system they support and desperately want to save can be trusted to “look after” Wales should hopefully be changed by giving a new party the chance to reorganise.
Not many outsiders understand Wales nor the grip the Welsh nationalism has over the majority – Carwyn Jones is 100% Plaid Cymru man using Labour for personal agenda to impose the Welsh Language upon the majority. For doubters see: http://www.glasnost.org.uk/blog/