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Ros Taylor

Roch Dunin-Wąsowicz

June 12th, 2020

No deal all over again?

0 comments | 13 shares

Estimated reading time: 10 minutes

Ros Taylor

Roch Dunin-Wąsowicz

June 12th, 2020

No deal all over again?

0 comments | 13 shares

Estimated reading time: 10 minutes

While the UK economy is on course to suffer the worst COVID-19 damage of any OECD country, the prospect of a no-deal Brexit has re-emerged after four rounds of negotiation have stalled, write Ros Taylor and Roch Dunin-Wąsowicz (LSE).

There’s no sign of the government countenancing a Brexit extension yet – but full border checks when the transition period ends will now be scaled down. This will make for a ‘pragmatic and flexible approach’.

The UK economy shrank 20.4% in April and the OECD predicts a decrease in the UK’s national income of 11.5% this year, which will outstrip the falls in all other western economies. Despite these forecasts, the lack of progress between the negotiating parties means no deal is a possibility. This would mean that more than half of the UK’s current imports from the EU would incur a 5.7 per cent tariff. 

Talks will now be ‘intensified‘ and Boris Johnson will meet EU leaders on Monday 15 June. ‘Not met anyone EU-side who expects a breakthrough at the moment,’ says the BBC’s Katya Adler.

However, Whitehall and Berlaymont are not the only players in the game:

However, as reported last week a compromise will probably be reached during Germany’s EU Council presidency – ‘when the cost of failure will become significantly more tangible’, as Sam Lowe writes for the CEU. In the meantime, some of the EU members most vulnerable to no deal, such as Ireland and Belgium, are pressing the European Commission to update its COVID-19 tumults to take account of Brexit.

The UK in a Changing Europe has a meaty new report about fisheries and Brexit. Cod be a good read.

On LSE Brexit

The Brexit divide may have an indirect effect on the phenomenon of lockdown scepticism, writes Patrick Sturgis, Jonathan Jackson and Jouni Kuha:

Lockdown scepticism is part of the Brexit divide

‘It means Europeans aren’t at the front of the queue’: beyond the liberal/ cosmopolitan divide

Brexit thinking, and indeed the immediate material consequences of that decision, stymied the government’s response to the virus, at a great human cost, writes Jonathan Hopkin:

Brexit thinking poisoned the government’s response to COVID-19

Finally, a reminder of happier days:

Image: “European Commission – Berlaymont” (CC BY 2.0) by libereurope.

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About the author

Ros Taylor

Ros Taylor is co-editor of LSE Brexit.

Roch Dunin-Wąsowicz

Dr Roch Dunin-Wąsowicz (@RochDW) is a researcher at the LSE Conflict and Civil Society Research Unit. He co-edits the LSE Brexit 2020 blog.

Posted In: #LSEThinks