Politics in Finland has become increasingly polarised since the country’s 2023 parliamentary election. Tapio Raunio writes that with divisions now apparent between Finnish parties on Europe, this year’s European Parliament election campaign could be more lively than usual.
This article is part of a series on the 2024 European Parliament elections. The EUROPP blog will also be co-hosting a panel discussion on the elections at LSE on 6 June.
Turnout in European Parliament elections held in Finland in the first two decades of the 21st century was just above 40%. Five years ago, in 2019, it was 42.7% (or 40.8% when also counting citizens not living in Finland), almost ten percentage points below turnout in the whole of the EU.
Yet there is at least moderate cause for optimism ahead of the 2024 European Parliament elections. Finnish voters may suffer from election fatigue after the national parliamentary elections of April 2023 and the presidential elections of early 2024, but the more polarised party-political climate has certainly sparked heated debates. There are also genuine ideological alternatives available to voters, as Finnish parties disagree over the future direction of European integration. Furthermore, most of the parties have managed to recruit high-profile candidates.
A polarised domestic landscape
Finnish politics has certainly become livelier recently. The parliamentary elections of April 2023 resulted in a victory for the political right, and the government led by Prime Minister Petteri Orpo – which brings together the National Coalition, the Finns Party, the Swedish People’s Party, and the Christian Democrats – has been described as the most right-wing in Finnish history. The government has introduced drastic cuts to public sector funding and aims to weaken the influence of trade unions. There has been a range of anti-government activities from large-scale strikes to public demonstrations and sit-in protests at university campuses.
The atmosphere has become tense, with growing polarisation between the political left and right. David Arter has called the coalition an “unhappy marriage”, and even Orpo himself has referred to it as a “marriage of convenience”. The governing parties disagree about many issues, including Europe.
These disagreements are reflected in the government programme which, on the one hand, argues that the “European Union is Finland’s most important political and economic frame of reference and community of values” while stating that the “EU’s own resources system must not be developed in a way that would result in a relative additional cost for Finland” and that “the government will not support introducing additional funding or entirely new EU-level funding instruments”. Referring to the Next Generation EU deal, the programme further clarifies that the “recovery instrument was an exceptional one-off solution that should not serve as a precedent. Finland will not accept repeating a similar arrangement or making it permanent.”
Finnish politics is also different when it comes to security policy. Putin’s war in Ukraine has had a dramatic impact on Finnish security policy, with Finland applying for NATO membership in May 2022 and joining the defence alliance in April 2023. NATO membership was accepted almost unanimously in the Eduskunta, the unicameral national legislature, and this consensus extends also to the EU’s role in security matters, with basically all Finnish parties sharing the view that effective European level measures are required to curb the Russian threat.
The left-right divide on deeper integration
From the beginning of EU membership in 1995 until the early 2010s, there was a relatively broad party-political consensus on integration in Finland. Above all, Finnish policymakers emphasised constructive participation in EU governance and the importance of strong supranational institutions. However, the euro crisis and the 2011 Eduskunta elections, in which the Finns Party achieved its breakthrough, was at least a partial turning point in Finland’s European policy.
Particularly the future of fiscal integration and climate policy – as illustrated by the highly politicised EU Nature Restoration Law – divide opinions within and between parties. A left-right cleavage has emerged, where the left-wing parties are more supportive of deeper economic integration and stronger European level environmental protection measures.
A few weeks ago, the Social Democrats came out in favour of an EU investment fund for preventing competition through state aid inside the Union. This fund could be financed by new EU taxes. Interestingly, the Confederation of Finnish Industries (EK) – the largest employers’ association in Finland, which is often closely linked to the National Coalition – is also supportive of such a new EU instrument.
Previously the Left Alliance was very critical of the EU’s economic governance regime, but now it underlines more the EU’s potential in job creation, climate policy and safeguarding democratic values. The Green League stands out with its federalist policies. It sees the EU first and foremost as a tool for pursuing ambitious green transition policies and supports increasing the budget and taxation powers of the EU and applying qualified majority voting in the Council across all issues.
On the centre-right, the National Coalition used to highlight the importance of the euro and the single market, but was divided over Next Generation EU and, in line with the government programme, opposes new EU level measures that would increase joint fiscal responsibility. The same applies to the Centre Party, currently in opposition, and its European election programme strikes a balance between the economic and security benefits of EU membership and opposition to deeper integration. The Swedish People’s Party remains committed to closer integration but must toe the line in the Orpo government.
The Finns Party has never officially demanded Finland’s exit from the EU or the eurozone, and in recent years it has focused very much on anti-immigration policies. The party is nonetheless against further transfers of authority to the European level and its leaders have not hesitated to criticise the EU publicly. The Christian Democrats’ EU policy has been more pragmatic depending on whether the party is in government or not, but it is also against deeper integration.
High-profile candidates
Whether such party-political differences receive attention in the media is not self-evident. The whole country forms one single constituency and citizens vote for individual candidates that are not pre-ranked by their political parties. With 15 seats up for grabs, candidates thus have a strong incentive to highlight their own personal qualities and issue priorities. Party leaders have therefore in previous European Parliament elections often stayed in the background, leaving campaigning to their candidates.
The National Coalition has been on a winning streak lately, winning both last year’s Eduskunta elections and the presidential elections held earlier this year. Low turnout has traditionally favoured the conservatives, and the party might even capture four seats instead of the three it currently has.
Leading candidates include MEPs Sirpa Pietikäinen and Henna Virkkunen, with the latter also mentioned as a potential new Commissioner from Finland (according to an unofficial rule, the party of the Prime Minister has the right to choose the Commissioner). Also included on the list is Mika Aaltola, the Director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA), who ran as an independent candidate in the presidential elections on a populist, anti-establishment platform, and vowed that he would not run for a seat in the European Parliament elections.
The Finns Party currently has two seats and its team of candidates is led by several senior party figures, including Sebastian Tynkkynen, convicted three times of ethnic agitation, and Vilhelm Junnila, who had to resign last summer from his ministerial post after only one month due to his far-right connections and Nazi jokes.
The Christian Democrats have formed an electoral alliance with Movement Now (one seat in the Eduskunta), and the party is hoping to return to the European Parliament where it was represented in 1999-2003 and in 2009-2014. Its leading candidate is Eija-Riitta Korhola, who has in the past served as an MEP for both her current party and the National Coalition.
The Swedish People’s Party can retain its single seat with a strong list that contains Eva Biaudet and Anna-Maja Henriksson, who will resign as party chair in the party congress to be held a week after the European Parliament elections. The Centre Party is hoping to renew its two seats, with its campaign most likely revolving around a critique of the EU’s interference in forestry policy. Among the candidates are former party chair Katri Kulmuni and former ministers Petri Honkonen and Mika Lintilä.
On the left, the Social Democrats are currently the largest party in the polls and hope to gain a third seat. MEP Eero Heinäluoma, a former party chair and very popular figure within the party, is leading a team of candidates that also includes several well-known MPs. The Green League has performed well in past European Parliament elections and has a strong list, but retaining its three seats can be difficult. Among the candidates are former party chairs Ville Niinistö, currently an MEP, and Maria Ihosalo, although the long-standing MEP Heidi Hautala is not seeking re-election.
The Left Alliance has a good chance of holding onto its single seat, particularly as its list is topped by Li Andersson, who will step down as party chair in the autumn. Andersson has led her party since 2016 and she may well be a significant vote-puller who can appeal to the pool of left-leaning liberal voters.
Overall, the election will most likely not result in any larger changes in seat distribution in the Parliament between the Finnish parties. However, the campaign may bring to surface tensions within and between cabinet parties, thereby adding to the strains clearly visible in the Orpo government. Hopefully, the debates will nonetheless focus on European issues – and hopefully party leaders articulate their parties’ positions instead of leaving the campaigning to the individual candidates.
Note: This article gives the views of the author, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: European Union
