The right-wing populist Vlaams Belang is aiming to become the largest party in the Flemish Parliament at the Flemish regional elections on 9 June. Philippe Mongrain and Karolin Soontjens write that while this would meet a target that it set after the last regional elections in 2019, there remain significant obstacles to the party entering government at all political levels.
This article is part of a series on the 2024 European Parliament elections. The EUROPP blog will also be co-hosting a panel discussion on the elections at LSE on 6 June.
In 2019, following important electoral gains in the federal and Flemish regional elections, Vlaams Belang’s chairman, Tom Van Grieken, announced the party’s “Mission 2024” (Missie 2024) campaign, aiming to make Vlaams Belang the largest political force in the next Flemish elections.
Recent polls suggest that Van Grieken’s party is well on its way to reach that goal at this year’s Flemish regional elections on 9 June. Since 2019, Vlaams Belang has almost consistently polled ahead of the N-VA, currently the largest party in the Flemish Parliament.
With only a few days remaining before the election, the radical right party, which advocates for the independence of Flanders and a drastic reduction in migrants and asylum seekers, enjoys the support of over a quarter of Flemish voters – compared to just over 20 percent for Bart de Wever’s N-VA. If the polls turn out to be accurate, this would be an unprecedented victory for the far right in Belgium, comparable to the recent success of Geert Wilders’ PVV in the 2023 Dutch general election.
Obstacles to governing
However, the road to power for Tom Van Grieken will not be easy. After all, Vlaams Belang has always been blocked from entering government at all political levels. In the 1990s, the other Flemish parties signed a formal agreement to never govern with Vlaams Belang (back then called “Vlaams Blok”) due to the party’s policy stances that violated the European Convention on Human Rights.
Vlaams Blok changed its party programme and name in the early 2000s, and while the other parties did not renew this written cordon sanitaire, they remain strongly committed to excluding Vlaams Belang from power. Recently, some N-VA politicians have flirted, and are still flirting, with the idea of breaking this cordon. But De Wever has declared that his party would not form a coalition with Vlaams Belang, stating that they agree on “almost nothing” with that party. Hence, the chances are very slim that the radical right will be able to translate their electoral success into effective government participation.
This does not mean that the party’s predicted success is without consequence. The attractiveness of more radical options and the strong nativist stances of Vlaams Belang also seem to have encouraged centre-right and centre-left parties to shift their positions on several socio-cultural and socio-economic issues in the hope of winning back voters. For instance, the Christian Democrats (CD&V) and Socialists (Vooruit) have moved somewhat to the right, notably on the topic of migration.
While Vlaams Belang appears to be riding high, other parties find themselves in a much less comfortable position. This is especially true for the Liberals (Open Vld) and the Greens (Groen), which have experienced a downward trend in vote intentions since the 2019 elections.
Recent polls suggest the Greens might even struggle to secure parliamentary seats in some provinces. On the opposite side of the political spectrum of Vlaams Belang, the communist PVDA is also gaining ground: provided the polls are accurate, and with a bit of luck, the party could almost double its 2019 vote share (from around five to ten percent) in the upcoming federal and regional elections.
Forecasting the result
The Media, Movement and Politics (M2P) research group at the University of Antwerp surveyed citizens and local politicians in March 2023 and May 2024 about their expectations regarding the upcoming Flemish elections. To our knowledge, this is the first survey to collect election forecasts from politicians. Respondents were asked to predict whether each party would gain, lose, or maintain its number of seats in the Flemish Parliament after the elections (see Figure 1 and Figure 2). They were also asked to rate the probability of each party being part of the next coalition government (see Figure 3).
Figure 1: Change in seats according to citizens
Note: 2023 survey (semi-transparent bars): n=879; 2024 survey (solid bars): n=856. Question: Regardless of your own political affiliation, can you say for each of the parties below how likely you think it is that they will have more or fewer seats in the Flemish Parliament after the next elections compared to the previous elections?
Figure 2: Change in seats according to politicians
Note: 2023 survey (semi-transparent bars): n=480; 2024 survey (solid bars): n=616. Question: Regardless of your own political affiliation, can you say for each of the parties below how likely you think it is that they will have more or fewer seats in the Flemish Parliament after the next elections compared to the previous elections?
Among both citizens and politicians, a vast majority of respondents believe that the far left (PVDA) and far right (Vlaams Belang) will increase their parliamentary presence following the 9 June elections. This belief has even slightly strengthened compared to a year ago.
Conversely, respondents are much more likely to expect losses for the Liberals and Greens. Confidence in the Flemish nationalists’ (N-VA) ability to retain their current number of seats has also declined. Furthermore, it is noteworthy that both citizens and politicians are today much less optimistic than a year ago about the expected performance of the socialist party Vooruit. These expectations align with the polling trends mentioned above.
Mission accomplished?
Although our respondents widely believe that Vlaams Belang will gain additional seats, Figure 3 shows that voters and politicians do not rate the party’s chances of joining the future coalition very high – although this probability has increased in comparison to March 2023.
Figure 3: Probability of each party being in government
Note: 2023 survey (semi-transparent bars): n=864 (citizens), n=468 (politicians); 2024 survey (solid bars): n=840 (citizens), n=605 (politicians). Question: And can you also say for each of these parties how likely you think it is that they will be part of the next Flemish government?
Interestingly, citizens are slightly more optimistic about Vlaams Belang’s coalition prospects than politicians. This is in line with most research showing that public support for the cordon is rather low compared to that of most politicians. Conversely, the likelihood of the Greens joining the next coalition – which is not very high anyway – has considerably decreased among citizens but not among politicians.
Looking at Figure 3, and provided the cordon sanitaire remains intact, a four-party coalition including the current partners (N-VA, CD&V, Open Vld) with the addition of the socialist Vooruit seems plausible. The current N-VA–CD&V–Open Vld coalition might not be able to get a majority of seats in the Flemish Parliament, so a four-party coalition will likely be needed to thwart the ambitions of the far right and far left. Such a four-party coalition would resemble the composition of the Leterme (2004–2007) and first Peeters (2007–2009) governments.
Note: This article gives the views of the authors, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: Imladris / Shutterstock.com
