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May 6th, 2010

General Election Night Live Blog 6 May 2010


Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

Blog Admin

May 6th, 2010

General Election Night Live Blog 6 May 2010


Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

Chris Gilson takes you through the General Election night 2010.

We’ll be closely monitoring results as they come in until 1am.  You will need to press F5 to refresh the page to see our coverage.

You can also follow the LSE’s Election Night event on a live webcast here:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________                  23:47

01:36 -We’re closing up shop now. It’s looking a lot like our last prediction will be close to the result – we’ll update tomorrow morning….

01:20 – After 10 seats, the picture seems to be settling down around the exit poll seat shares.

01:14 – The Conservatives have held on to Putney, with a 9.9 per cent swing from Labour to the Conservatives.

01:13The Staggers has more on voters being turned away from polling stations.

01:11 – Torbay has just been called for the Liberal Democrats – there has been a small Lib Dem/Tory swing of 1.1. per cent.

01:03 – Seven seats declared and we seem to be moving back to the exit poll numbers. Conservatives are back down to a projected 315 seats against Labour 247. Still the Lib Dems are struggling to get above 60. What has happened to the Lib Dem support?

00:58 – Labour hold the two seats of Darlington and Durham North, both with swings of over 8 per cent to the Conservatives from Labour.

00:55 – Poll of Thornbury and Yate predicts a Lib Dem win, but a 4.3 per cent swing from the Lib Dems to the Tories.

00:53– BBC is reporting Peter Robinson, leader of the DUP, has been defeated in Belfast East.

00:48 – Nick  Robinson is saying of the voting problems today:

Voters locked out of polling stations, ballot papers running out, scuffles inside polling stations, sit-ins, the police called, some able to vote after 10pm while others were blocked from doing so.

What a tragedy that, after a campaign which engaged and energised many who were previously cynical about politics, tonight’s story may be being over-shadowed by the extraordinary revelation that Britain cannot competently run the most basic part of the democratic process.

00:35 – Two more seats due to declare at 12:45am – Birmingham Edgbaston and Birmingham Ladywood. We’ll give you more seat projections once they do.

00:30 – BBC reporting that Caroline Lucas may have won in Brighton Pavillion – to win she would need a 14% swing from Labour, who currently hold it with 36%

00:26 – We’ve got a quick list of constuencies where there have been problems with voting today:

  • Hull
  • Islington
  • Lewisham
  • Romford
  • Liverpool Wavertree
  • Surrey South West
  • Liverpool Riverside

00:22 –  Counting  in a poll centre in Londonderry has been suspended following a security alert –

00:16 – The exit poll has been silent on percentages thus far – we’ve decoded the seat figures as best we can, and we estimate the following: Con: 38 per cent, or just under; Lab: 29 per cent; Lib Dem: 24 per cent.

00:06 – PA sources are apparently reporting that the Tories will claim Battersea  – if so, that is a sure sign of a very good night for the Conservatives.

23:56 – Sunderland Central just called – the third North region seat. Labour move to 3 seats. And these percentages calm the picture somewhat. Not as big a loss for Labour in this seat (only 4 per cent). The Tories increase their share by 5.5 per cent. This takes the Conservative seat share down slightly to 317. Lib Dems are still about where they started in terms of seats.

23:50 – BBC television election coverage has dropped it’s ticker of the exit poll results – does anyone know if this is normal for this time of night?

23:47 – BBC is reporting a strengthening pound on the possibility of a large enough swing for a Conservative majority. 

23:39 – Sunderland Central results: Conservatives: 12,770 Labour: 19,495 Lib Dems: 7,191 – Labour Holds. Tories needed an 11.6 per cent swing to win this.

23:37 – The second seat accentuates the Tory increase and Labour drop – despite the second Labour seat win. This was a very safe seat for Labour, however it does not bode well for Labour nationally. The average decrease for Labour in vote share is 14 per cent after 2 seats. Our estimates suggest that Conservatives would have 337 to Labour 216.

23:35 – Sunderland Central expected soon.

23:29 – Feeding these numbers into our prediction machine, we get Con: 337, Lab: 219, LD: 67. BBC is saying that if this is repeated across the country, then this will be the ‘biggest swing since 1945’.

23:26 – Washington and Sunderland West results – LD – 6,382, Con- 8,157, Lab- 19,615 – this is a 16 per cent drop for Labour, 7 per cent increase for the Conservatives.

23:25 – Washington and Sunderland West declaring.

22:17 – Photos from the last panel are now available.

Patrick Dunleavy, Helen Margetts and Simon Hix

Patrick Dunleavy and Zack Cooper

23:13 – Sky has revised their exit poll Con: 305, Lab: 255 LD: 61 O:29

23:00 – We’ve done a quick analysis of the Houghton and Sunderland results – Labour win with a clear majority but a loss over 11 per cent. Conservatives increase their vote share by 5 per cent. What does mean for seat allocation? Our own estimates suggest that this would take the Tories even higher than the exit poll (up to 317). Labour drop further in terms of seats to around 240. And Libs would edge up to around 63.
* Please note that these results are very preliminary and will be subject to revison as the night progresses.

Vote per cent38.828.623.
Total seats317239635500031.8650
Change from 2005107(110)1(1)300000

22:54 – Houghton and Sunderland declare! Labour wins by 11,000 votes. 19,137 to 8,147 for the Tories, 5,292 for the Lib Dems. Peter Kellner of YouGov, on the BBC says turnout in this seat is low at 55%.

22:52 – Houghton and Sunderland are now 4 minutes behind their record of 48 minutes in 2005. Sounds like they are about to declare now.

22:49 – Our experts inital view: Conservative’s seat scores about right, final result will have the Lib Dems on more than 59, but at Labour’s expense.

22:47 – Poss. the most odd Tweet of the night so far:

Sweet jesus. Schwarzenegger has called to congratulate Cameron. What ON??

22:43 – Also on the BBC – Alan Johnson says it’s “hung parliament’ territory, not conceding defeat territory” – he’s happy for Labour to Work with the Lib Dems – does this mean he expects the Tories’ result to fall?

22:43 – Breaking News from the BBC

Police have been called to some polling stations to move on people who wanted to vote but couldn’t because they were still queuing outside at 10pm. In the Manchester Withington constituency, about 200 people were turned away. A spokesman for the returning officer for Manchester said: “The law states that the doors to polling stations must be closed at 10pm exactly, and no-one may be issued with a ballot paper after 10pm.

22:40 – Telegraph reporting voters being turned away in Sheffield because of high turnout – Sky News reporting 150-200 voters still waiting to vote in Sheffield.

22:33 – ConservativeHome has David Cameron saying – “‘This is a decisive rejection of Labour. We can govern with this result.'”

22:28 – Houghton and Sunderland south must declare in the next 17 minutes, if they are to beat their 2005 record.

22:25 – Vince Cable says exit polls are ‘very strange’

22:17 – We think these exit polls are startling. Based on 18,000 voters and around 130 polling stations. Conservative seats are over 300, close to the most generous LSE estimation (310). But what has happened to the Lib Dems? Can they actually lose seats? This may signify a certain level of Labour resistance, particularly against Lib Dem gains.

22:16 – FT’s Westminster blog talks about the spin that’s already occuring with this exit poll:

The spin is happening already. Harriet Harman, deputy Labour leader, says the exit poll shows the country “hasn’t turned overwhelmingly to the Conservatives”. Michael Gove, the shadow education secretary spins it another way. He says it suggests “a comprehensive rejection of Gordon Brown and a strong vote for change”. They both say it is a time for politicians to show “humility”. I doubt that call will be heeded for long.

22:11 – Iain Dale predicts BBC/ITN/Sky to have egg on their faces. He will “run naked down Whitehall” if the Lib Dems end up with only 59 seats.

22:08 – Real upset from expectations – Lib Dems  far lower than expected – fewer MPs than 2005

22:05 – EXIT POLL – CON: 307 LAB:255 LD:59 O:29

21:56 – Rumours the MORI poll has been leaked, and that’s affecting betting odds –

21:54 – Tony Travers – we may not know what the result is until well into the night; one of the most unpredictable elections in recent memory.

21:46 – Simon Hix talks Conservative seat probabilites.

21:41 – Charlie Beckett – most exciting election in Britain in half a century  – and media has been truly significant – a crucial factor in election dynamics. ot necessarily an Internet election, but certainly an interactive one.

21:35 – 130 opinion polls in the campaign so far.  Score for ‘Other parties’ expected to rise over 9 per cent.

21:33 – Patrick Dunleavy speaking – he only expects two seats to change hands.

21:33 – Settling down for the first discussion – Beckett, Dunleavy, Hix and Travers – Overview of the Campaign –

21:00 – Welcome to the LSE Election Experts’ live blog of Election Night 2010. We’ll be here for the next four hours, looking at seats as they come in, and giving predictions for the outcome. We’ll also have comments from our panel of speakers for the evening, as well as looking at commentary (and maybe some rumour!) from the rest of the blogging community.

Already today, there have been reports of high-turnouts at polling stations, with some bookmakers predicting a turn-out of over 70 per cent. Some are saying 71 per cent. Turnout was also about 71 per cent in 1997, and has not been above 80 per cent since 1951. Stuart Wilks-Heeg who is a contributor to this blog is picking 64 per cent.

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