Posted by Patrick Dunleavy.
Update on Poll Information and MPs projections for 8:30pm on Polling Day, Thursday 6 May
We have now slightly updated our projections to take account of the final poll of the campaign, published today.
National Votes Shares
There are 8 final opinion polls published this morning and our median score measure below is based on all of them. There is a high measure of agreement that
– the Conservatives are on 35 to 37 per cent,
– Labour are on 27 to 28 per cent,
– the Liberal Democrats are on 26 to 28 per cent, and
– the Other parties are on 7 to 12 per cent.
|Con||Lab||Lib Dem||Other||Con Lead over Lab|
|Ipsos Mori||36||29||27||9||+ 7|
|Median Scores||36||28||27||9||+ 8|
|Austin Reed||36||24||29||11||+ 12|
GB Change of Votes 2005 – 2010
|Votes for the top three |
parties (and Others)
|Labour||Conservatives||Liberal Democrats||Other||Con lead over Lab|
|2010 Nationally||28||36||27||9||+ 8|
|Change||- 8||+ 3||+ 4||+ 1|
|Change in marginal seats||- 11||+ 3||+ 6||+ 2|
1. On a uniform national swing basis, from our votes shares the Conservatives are narrowly the largest party but a Labour + Liberal Democrat coalition is still feasible.
2. If tactical voting by Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters operates this year (as in the last three elections), Labour could gain over 20 more seats and be the largest party. But the Liberal Democrats would see little extra benefit. Both Conservative/Liberal Democrat and Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition governments are viable.
3. If Labour loses more support in its marginal seats than nationwide (see above), the Conservatives would soar ahead in winning MPs, putting Cameron in sight almost of an overall majority. The Liberal Democrats’ seats tally would also grow a lot at Labour’s expense. Labour’s parliamentary representation would reduce by nearly 140 MPs. Hence only a Conservative minority government or a Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition are feasible outcomes.
|Projected MPs ||LSE seats|
Projection with Lab/Lib tactical voting
add Con lead in marginal seats
|BBC Seats Model|
|Majority Shortfall (for Cons from 326)||52||38||16||42|
|Viable coalitions||Con + Lib |
Lab + Lib
|Con + Lib |
Lab + Lib
|Con + Lib only||Con + Lib
Lab + Lib
4. These differences dramatize how much the electoral system can now behave in a very volatile way in response to very small variations in the balance of parties’ support.