Posted by Chris Gilson.
Latest Poll Information for 29 March
|Party||BBC Poll Tracking||LSE Poll Tracking|
|Per cent||Per cent|
|Last Change||24 March||29 March|
Last we week we commented on the possibility of the budget affecting the polls (as has been the case in previous years). At the end of last week, we saw the Labour/Tory gap narrow to 3 points (and two in some polls) – this has now widened back to 5 per cent, with Labour losing and the Conservatives gaining a point, which is in line with what it has been for the majority of this month. While the YouGov poll from the end of last week put Labour on 32 per cent and the Tories on 37 as well, the Mail on Sunday’s poll put Labour on 3per cent, and ICM has 31 per cent, with the Tories on 37 and 39 per cent each. The BBC have not changed their measure from the MORI poll of last week.
Was last week’s poll narrowing simply a ‘blip’, which has now been corrected, or are people reacting to the budget (which was rather positive for Labour last week), the renewed BA strike, and the new threat of an RMT strike over Easter? In any case, while Labour’s support has dropped by at least two points after the budget, it has not experienced the plunge seen in previous years. Given that commentators are still discussing the threat of a hung parliament, Conservative HQ will be hoping for a further drop for Labour in the polls with their advertising campaign being rolled out today.