Posted by Chris Gilson.

Latest Poll Information for 31 March

The Conservative’s lead over Labour continues to widen in both of our measures today, to 7 per cent.  In our polling measure, Labour (again) loses one point and the Tories gain one.  Is this the post-budget fall that we discussed last week? Or perhaps the Tories’ recent negative advertising campaign is working? What is clear is that the Liberal Democrats have not been gifted with a poll rise after Vince Cable’s much lauded performance in Monday’s ‘Chancellors’ debate. The BBC’s measure is fairly similar to ours, with both parties with one per cent fewer support than then LSE’s measure (they are using the ComRes/Independent poll of earlier this week).

As was expected post-budget, there have been a plethora of polls this week, most of which put Labour at around the 30/31 per cent mark and the Tories on 37/38 per cent.  The Opinium poll of 26-29 March puts Labour on 28 per cent and the Conservatives on 38 per cent, but this is something of an outlier as the majority of its previous polls have been at around this level (i.e. out of step with most of the other polling measures). In any case, Labour are clearly sinking in the polls  – if they go much under 30 per cent in the near future then their chances of success (and of a hung parliament) become more and more remote.