Reliable population statistics are vital for sound and effective evidence-based policy-making. But in a fast-changing society, keeping this information up to date is a challenge. Jen Woolford outlines a new proposal seeking to improve how data are collected and invites this blog’s readers and contributors to participate in shaping this process. 

High-quality, timely and accurate population statistics are essential to make sure people get the services and support they need, both within their local communities and nationwide. They provide evidence for policies that affect us all, from education and health to housebuilding and development, so it is vital that Office for National Statistics (ONS) population statistics reflect the needs of everyone.

These data don’t just give us an overall estimate for how many people are in the country, they also provide us with a wealth of other insights about our society. We can see how things like income and life expectancy can vary based on characteristics such as ethnic group and disability or how different life events affect different people. This can help decision-makers address disparities and determine how their policies impact people’s lives. Population data can be used to explore health outcomes among different groups and plan where new health interventions are needed the most. For example, our estimates of the number of people with chronic respiratory or cardiovascular disease living in poverty linked population data with health records.

Currently, the census provides the backbone of these statistics, giving us a rich picture of our society at national and local levels every 10 years. However, these statistics become less accurate over the decade and local detail on important topics becomes increasingly out of date as we move further away from the census year. The pandemic highlighted how some aspects of our society can be quickly disrupted and we need statistics that can keep pace with similar, new changes.

A new system

The ONS has developed proposals to create a new system for population data, moving away from reliance on a census every 10 years. Instead, up to date administrative data – information that we all provide when we access public services like the tax, benefits, health and education systems – could be at the core of the new system. These data could be complemented by survey data with a wider range of other data sources, and a variety of statistical methods.

The proposed system would respond more effectively to society’s changing needs by giving users high-quality population statistics each year.

If implemented, the proposed system would respond more effectively to society’s changing needs by giving users high-quality population statistics each year. It would also offer new and additional insights into the changes and movement of our population across different seasons or times of day. For many topics, it would provide much more local information not just once a decade but every year, exploring them in new detail and covering areas not recorded by the census, such as income. This would unlock a wide range of analysis and insights, with the potential to shine new light on many aspects of our lives. For instance, the ONS is working to produce local statistics that can estimate the population present in an area on a particular day of the week and at a given time of day.

What do you think?

Population data is much cited in academic research and by commentators on public policy. Such data form part of the narrative and discussion behind many of the important societal issues of the day. That’s why feedback on our proposed new system from the general public, and particularly from those who conduct research based on these data, is crucial. The ONS has been running a public consultation outlining our proposals, which closes in just a few weeks’ time on 26 October 2023. We’re keen to hear from data users from across the board – tell us what your data needs are and what you would like to see in a future system. Is there a dataset you value for research? Or perhaps you need neighbourhood statistics to understand local trends?

The consultation sets out our vision in detail and we have released proofs of concept, including local authority case studies, to illustrate this potential future system. So far individuals and organisations from across local government, the health and charity sector, and family history are among those to have had their say.

Responses to this consultation will inform a recommendation by the National Statistician, as set out in the 2018 Census White Paper, on how the ONS should produce these important statistics about the population in future so that they can best meet the needs of everyone in years to come.

You can find a link to the consultation on the ONS homepage. Please contact 2023consultation@ons.gov.uk if you need any help.

All articles posted on this blog give the views of the author(s), and not the position of LSE British Politics and Policy, nor of the London School of Economics and Political Science.

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