Polls

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    In defence of polls: A few high-profile misses should not overshadow the many times pollsters called it right

In defence of polls: A few high-profile misses should not overshadow the many times pollsters called it right

Polling companies were heavily criticised for failing to predict the results of the UK’s EU referendum and Donald Trump’s presidential election victory, but is this criticism fair? Abel Bojar draws on evidence from recent European elections to illustrate that opinion polls have a far better record of success than they’re given credit for.

Some professions are dealt a bad hand […]

Trump and Brexit: why it’s again NOT the economy, stupid

As the final votes are counted, pundits and pollsters sit stunned as Donald J. Trump gets set to enter the White House. For anyone in Britain, there is a sharp tang of déjà vu in the air: this feels like the morning after the Brexit vote all over again. Eric Kaufmann explains that, as with Brexit, there’s little evidence […]

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    Brexit is not the will of the British people – it never has been

Brexit is not the will of the British people – it never has been

The referendum vote for Brexit was clear: the electorate was 46,501,241 people; 17,410,742 of those voted Leave; and 16,141,241 voted Remain. The public actually did not, does not, and will not want a Brexit in the foreseeable future. Adrian Low makes this argument by analysing the post-referendum polls and demographic trends.

The difference between leave and remain was 3.8 percent or […]

October 25th, 2016|Brexit, Featured|23 Comments|
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    Leave was always in the lead: why the polls got the referendum result wrong

Leave was always in the lead: why the polls got the referendum result wrong

By analysing 121 opinion polls, Harold D. Clarke, Matthew Goodwin, and Paul Whiteley outline what happened with the EU referendum survey results. They explain why internet surveys performed substantially better than telephone ones – contrary to the post-2015 General Election ‘wisdom’ that telephone surveys should be preferred. Underlying trends showed that once methodological artefacts are controlled, Leave was almost certainly ahead of Remain […]

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    Book Review: Uninformed: Why People Know So Little About Politics and What We Can Do About It by Arthur Lupia

Book Review: Uninformed: Why People Know So Little About Politics and What We Can Do About It by Arthur Lupia

Are citizens fundamentally uninformed – or even misinformed – when it comes to questions of politics and government? In Uninformed: Why People Knows So Little About Politics and What We Can Do About It, Arthur Lupia tackles the issue of political ignorance by arguing that rather than simply seeking to provide greater information to the public on political issues, the […]

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    ‘Too close to call’? Accounting for satisfaction with party leadership would have helped better predict the General Election

‘Too close to call’? Accounting for satisfaction with party leadership would have helped better predict the General Election

A good predictor of electoral outcomes over the past nine UK general elections has been survey questions asking about satisfaction with the leaders of the two main parties. That measure, however, combines responses from people who support the party and those who don’t. Here, Ruth Dixon explores leader satisfaction among party supporters as a way of measuring the level of ‘enthusiastic support.’ In 2015, these […]

Book Review: Opinion Polls and the Media: Reflecting and Shaping Public Opinion

Opinion Polls and the Media provides a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between the media, opinion polls, and public opinion. The contributors explore how the media use opinion polls in a range of countries across the world, and analyses the effects and uses of opinion polls by the public as well as political actors. Reviewed by Anthony Wells. Opinion Polls and the […]

There will be no general election in 2014. Cameron can’t risk giving Miliband the gravitas boost of being Prime Minister and throwing his own party into turmoil

Responding to Patrick’s Dunleavy’s contention earlier this week that a break-up of the coalition and a general election can be expected as soon as 2014, Mark Pack argues that David Cameron would actually be too worried about giving Ed Miliband an electoral fillip and an easy entry into Downing Street, which in turn could result in a Tory leadership coup […]

Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported
This work by British Politics and Policy at LSE is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported.