Polls

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    Why party leader approval ratings do not predict election outcomes

Why party leader approval ratings do not predict election outcomes

Ahead of the 2015 general election, Jack Blumenau found a weak relationship between party leader approval ratings and election outcomes. In light of the 2017 election, he re-run the analysis and here he explains why the data confirmed his earlier conclusion.

During the 2015 UK general election I wrote a piece for the LSE election blog which looked at whether […]

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    What explains the narrowing of GE2017 polls? Women – both young and older

What explains the narrowing of GE2017 polls? Women – both young and older

Rosalind Shorrocks recently reviewed the ways in which gender matters for GE2017, showing that, although Labour is particularly popular among young women, this was the demographic most undecided about how to vote. In this follow up piece with Stephen Fisher they write that there has been an increase in support for Labour from women after the manifesto launches. This […]

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    When do voters decide how to vote? The polls, the fundamentals, and GE2017

When do voters decide how to vote? The polls, the fundamentals, and GE2017

Labour has gained considerably in polls in recent weeks. But do voters really change preferences during a campaign? Will Jennings and Christopher Wlezien explain the importance of using a fundamentals-based approach in predicting UK elections. They find that, despite the turnaround in fortunes in this year’s campaign, the Conservatives may still be looking at a 9-point lead.

How do voters’ […]

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    Why Corbyn’s leadership is being judged neither prematurely nor by the wrong standards

Why Corbyn’s leadership is being judged neither prematurely nor by the wrong standards

Supporters of the Labour leader believe he is being judged by the wrong standards, and that opponents are unable to understand the leadership style he is offering. Eric Shaw draws on political theory to explain what that leadership style actually is and writes that, despite Corbyn’s merits as an individual, his concept of leadership is not what Labour requires.

Labour […]

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    In defence of polls: A few high-profile misses should not overshadow the many times pollsters called it right

In defence of polls: A few high-profile misses should not overshadow the many times pollsters called it right

Polling companies were heavily criticised for failing to predict the results of the UK’s EU referendum and Donald Trump’s presidential election victory, but is this criticism fair? Abel Bojar draws on evidence from recent European elections to illustrate that opinion polls have a far better record of success than they’re given credit for.

Some professions are dealt a bad hand […]

Trump and Brexit: why it’s again NOT the economy, stupid

As the final votes are counted, pundits and pollsters sit stunned as Donald J. Trump gets set to enter the White House. For anyone in Britain, there is a sharp tang of déjà vu in the air: this feels like the morning after the Brexit vote all over again. Eric Kaufmann explains that, as with Brexit, there’s little evidence […]

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    Brexit is not the will of the British people – it never has been

Brexit is not the will of the British people – it never has been

The referendum vote for Brexit was clear: the electorate was 46,501,241 people; 17,410,742 of those voted Leave; and 16,141,241 voted Remain. The public actually did not, does not, and will not want a Brexit in the foreseeable future. Adrian Low makes this argument by analysing the post-referendum polls and demographic trends.

The difference between leave and remain was 3.8 percent or […]

October 25th, 2016|Brexit, Featured|69 Comments|
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    Leave was always in the lead: why the polls got the referendum result wrong

Leave was always in the lead: why the polls got the referendum result wrong

By analysing 121 opinion polls, Harold D. Clarke, Matthew Goodwin, and Paul Whiteley outline what happened with the EU referendum survey results. They explain why internet surveys performed substantially better than telephone ones – contrary to the post-2015 General Election ‘wisdom’ that telephone surveys should be preferred. Underlying trends showed that once methodological artefacts are controlled, Leave was almost certainly ahead of Remain […]

Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported
This work by British Politics and Policy at LSE is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported.