Lorenzo Codogno and Mara Monti take a bird’s-eye view of banking problems in Italy, which started mostly as a fall-out from the sovereign debt crisis and the deep economic recession that followed. Policymakers and bank managers underestimated the consequences of the crisis, and the policy response was slow. New banking regulations did not pay much attention to Italy’s specificities, […]
In Italy, the temptation to go back in time, or shut the door to Europe and globalisation is strong, especially after a quarter of a century of poor economic performance, argue Lorenzo Codogno and Giampaolo Galli. Anti-establishment parties, which gained an outright majority in Parliament in the country’s recent elections, blame the past reform process, together with the threats […]
There seems to be a strong convergence of interests between the Greek government, the European Commission and Eurozone Member States (and the IMF): they all want a clean exit from the Third Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece. Lorenzo Codogno explains that political motivations may well collide with the need to reduce risks and favour a smooth and successful return […]
Ahead of the Italian elections on 4 March, opinion polls suggest an increasingly fragmented political scenario, with a hung parliament and likely difficulties in having a parliamentary majority in support of a new government. But what will the vote mean for Italy’s relations with the EU? Lorenzo Codogno discusses the three most important themes in the Italy-EU relationship.
Credit: Giorgio Montersino […]
Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement riding high in the polls in Italy has led to speculation over the prospect of the country leaving the euro. Lorenzo Codogno and Giampaolo Galli argue that an ‘Italexit’ would be a catastrophic scenario, with incommensurable economic, social, and political costs lasting for many years. They note that redenomination, and a likely default on debt […]
The banking crisis in Europe has three distinct legs according to Lorenzo Codogno and Mara Monti. The first leg was purely financial contagion from the sub-prime crisis in the US to toxic assets held in bank portfolios in Europe, while the second wave was equally intense, amid the negative feedback loop between banks and sovereigns. The third wave is […]
Following the outcome of today’s referendum, President Mattarella will do his best to avoid early elections. Any new caretaker government would easily take a full year to deliver a new electoral law and thus the baseline case remains for elections no earlier than the natural end of this parliamentary term in spring 2018, writes Lorenzo Codogno. The tail risks […]
Following the outcome of Sunday’s referendum, Italy’s President, Sergio Mattarella, will do his best to avoid early elections. Any new caretaker government would easily take a full year to deliver a new electoral law and thus the baseline case remains for elections no earlier than the natural end of this parliamentary term in spring 2018, writes Lorenzo Codogno. He […]
Italy’s constitutional referendum is fast approaching and financial markets are already jittery. Lorenzo Codogno and Mara Monti write that while some observers have pointed to the risk of the Five Star Movement getting into power, or even Italy leaving the euro, these are unlikely developments, at least in the short term. The real issue is not about political instability, […]
Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi, has stated that he will resign if he loses a referendum on constitutional reform scheduled to take place before the end of the year. Lorenzo Codogno writes that although the referendum will have major implications for the Italian government and the next general election, concerns about the wider impact on Italy’s political and financial […]
The human cost of the earthquake which hit Italy on 24 August was disastrous, with nearly 300 people killed and almost 400 injured. But the earthquake will also have both a short and long-term economic impact on the country. Lorenzo Codogno attempts to estimate the size of this impact, noting that the nature of the economic damage, the lack […]
The Italian government will present its public finance projections by 10 April. Lorenzo Codogno writes that fiscal policy is expected to be strongly expansionary in 2016, but courtesy of flexibility clauses, the government will likely avoid entering into the EU’s so called ‘Excessive Deficit Procedure’ in May. He argues however that a fiscal problem looms large in 2017, while […]
Negotiations for the completion of the first review of the third bailout programme for Greece are approaching a critical stage, with the Greek government resisting some pension and tax changes, while creditors insist on credible and rigorous implementation. Lorenzo Codogno writes that differences are bridgeable within a couple of months, and a positive outcome would open the door for […]
Italy is currently asking Brussels for more flexibility over its new budget for structural reforms, investments and to help manage the refugee crisis. Lorenzo Codogno writes that this makes the Italian budget expansionary and, perhaps, also pro-cyclical. Moreover, it raises a number of issues on the proper interpretation of EU fiscal rules, the rules themselves, and the most appropriate […]
Eurozone finance ministers met on Tuesday to discuss the Greek debt crisis following the country’s ‘No’ vote in its bailout referendum on 5 July. Lorenzo Codogno writes that while a Grexit remains unlikely, the risks have clearly increased since the referendum and the financial and economic situation in Greece may further deteriorate before a solution is in sight.
Following the […]
The final result of the Greek referendum saw 61.3 per cent of voters reject the proposal, with 38.7 per cent voting in favour. We asked some of EUROPP’s contributors for their reactions to the result and what it could mean for Greece’s future in the Eurozone.
Kyriakos Moumoutzis: “To ‘live life on their own terms’ is to live life outside […]
Greece and its creditors have been engaged in a two-month standoff over the release of further financial assistance to the country. Lorenzo Codogno and Paul De Grauwe write that with no agreement yet reached, the possibility of Greece leaving the euro has now become real. They argue that the only solution to the crisis is for both sides to […]
Following Switzerland’s announcement in January that it would no longer hold the Swiss franc at a fixed exchange rate with the euro, Denmark has faced mounting speculation that it will follow suit and abandon its euro peg. Lorenzo Codogno and Paul De Grauwe write that there is a paradox in the approach of Denmark to the issue: the Danish […]
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Financial markets vs Brussels: What is the best anchor for policies?
Financial markets vs Brussels: What is the best anchor for policies?
Lorenzo Codogno argues that the economic and financial crisis that started more than ten years ago was not only devastating for the Italian economy, but also jeopardised a key mechanism for achieving political consensus. Brussels’ role as an external anchor for economic policies that are in the common interest but are socially and politically difficult to accept and implement […]