Following its independence from Britain in 1960, Nigeria embarked on its journey towards democracy. Nonetheless, this transition has been marred by electoral irregularities and the omnipresence of corruption across the political structure. Consequently, Nigeria has been designated by Freedom House as ‘partly free’, reflecting its national challenges in strengthening democratic principles. The complex interplay of historical legacies, including colonial mismanagement, has contributed to the hollowing out of democratic processes in post-independence Nigeria.

Pre-Independence: Origin of the State

Prior to independence, political activities in Nigeria were concentrated on civil resistance against the colonial administration. Notably, in 1929, tens of thousands of women participated in the Aba Riots to protest against “an enforced and exploitative British colonial policy of taxation” and against “patriarchal legal structures”. The nationalist demands for independence and the deep discontent with the colonial state united the Nigerian electorate towards a common cause and became the foundation on which this new state was built.

Southern and Northern Nigeria in 1914 / Image: John Bartholomew & Co. Edinburgh

However, the colonial era also played a pivotal role in exacerbating ethnic divisions that remain contentious in Nigeria’s contemporary politics. The formation of the modern Nigerian state was driven by imperial aspirations for centralisation. In 1914, Southern Nigeria and Northern Nigeria were amalgamated. While the merger of these territories appeared pragmatic, the new border demarcations drawn by the colonial administration overlooked their impact on ethnic and religious communities. The population of Northern Nigeria was predominantly Muslim and primarily came from the Hausa-Fulani ethnic group, whereas in Southern Nigeria, Christianity was the predominant religion, and the Yoruba were the largest ethnic group. The colonial creation of the Nigerian state failed to recognise this divide and the presence of diverse minority communities, serving as the origin of the salient ethnic-religious cleavages that endure in contemporary Nigerian politics. 

Post-Independence: A Disunited Electorate

A statue commemorating Nnamdi Azikiwe, the first President of Nigeria during the First Republic / Image: Iwuala Lucy (distributed via CC BY-SA 4.0 DEED) 

The 1959 elections resulted in the victory of the Northern People’s Congress. Politicians from the Northern region gained the most seats, strengthening the North-South ethno-regional divide in Nigeria. The electoral dominance of Northern politicians catalysed resentment from people in the South who felt underrepresented within the central government. As a result of this divide and also to claimingly eradicate corrupt political actors, a group of young army majors staged a coup d’état in 1966 to overthrow the Nigerian government. The military propagated that they were custodians of democracy, aiming to safeguard democratic principles.

However, its long-term effects on Nigerian politics were resoundingly different from the aims they claimed. The coup highlighted the vulnerability of the central government against the military force, leading to a succession of repressive military governments ruling Nigeria for the next 29 years. The violent suppression under military rule, along with the misappropriation of public funds, also deepened Nigeria’s reliance on oil exports. As one of the biggest producers of oil, Ibrahim Babangida’s military government exploited Nigeria’s oil revenue for the expansion of a corrupt clientelist political network in order to sustain power. This exacerbated the problem of the “resource curse” of Nigeria and established a bad precedent for further cynical exploitation of state resources.

Looking Back: Neoliberal International Interventions

Aside from domestic instabilities, the neoliberal international intervention like the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) led by Bretton Woods Institutions (namely the IMF and the World Bank) in fact caused civil unrest and further exacerbated the challenges of weak democratic consolidation in Nigeria.

Introduced in 1989, the SAP aimed to “break its vicious circle of excessive public spending, inflation, and exchange rate depreciation” through a package of trade liberalisation and foreign exchange reform. However, the impact of the SAP on the everyday lives of Nigerians diverged from its neoliberal rhetoric. Writers and editors in the nation warned that Nigeria was being “SAPped out” of its innate economic capabilities by SAP’s development policies. Reduction of government expenditure contributed to the collapse of the transport system across the country, and food items such as rice, cooking oil and salt also became unavailable.

The imposition and repercussions of such austerity measures laid the foundation for widespread societal discontent. Riots initially sparked as a student-led demonstration and eventually escalated into a mass mob action led by “the unemployed, market women, [and] school pupils” against the SAP. It is evident that such international intervention was highly unpopular and further heightened the marginalisation and disillusionment of the fragile and minority groups within the existing political system.

Looking Ahead: The 2023 Nigerian Election

The 2023 election was perceived as one of the most competitive elections since the end of military rule. Held on 25 February 2023, the Nigerian election marked the end of the two-term rule of then-incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari.

Voters queuing up to vote in the 2023 elections / Image: Yemi Festus (distributed via CC BY-SA 4.0 DEED)

Once again, the election was disrupted by recurring cycles of electoral violence, involving coercive acts targeting individuals, property and infrastructure, with the explicit aim of influencing the electoral process and outcome. In the build-up to the election, 109 civilian electoral-related deaths were recorded. Crucially, this electoral violence took on an ethnic dimension during the presidential elections. Anecdotal evidence from residents in the Lagos region noted that “they’re chasing Igbo people away” and engaging in physical violence against targeted ethnic communities. The prevalence of electoral violence in the democratic processes underlines the salience of ethnic cleavages and the entrenched instability within Nigeria’s political sphere.

In this highly contested election, Bolu Tinubu from the leading All Progressives Congress (APC) party emerged victorious with 37% of the popular vote. Regarded as a pragmatist, Tinubu has proposed policies focused on job creation and tackling economic insecurity. However, allegations of corruption have also been levelled against President Tinubu. Despite accusations ranging from money laundering to tax evasion, Tinubu’s success reflects the systematic nature of corruption in Nigerian politics. The persistent prevalence of elite-led corruption lends weight to the view that politics in Nigeria requires extensive and profound reforms to achieve complete democratic consolidation.

Conclusion

Is there hope for the new government? Within days of assuming office, President Tinubu dismissed high-profile officials such as Godwin Emefiele, who faces prosecution on corruption charges. From a foreign policy standpoint, Tinubu has been actively engaging with foreign nations to strengthen diplomatic ties. This approach epitomises his 4D policy, which seeks to redefine Nigeria’s global engagement strategy and foster dynamic foreign relations. While the systemic erosion of democracy cannot be easily reversed overnight, Tinubu’s reforms still signal a fresh start in Nigerian politics. 

By Ying Hang Zeng

Cover Image Source: Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu by Chatham House (distributed via CC BY 2.0)