Posted by Chris Gilson
Latest Poll Information for 19 March
| Party | BBC Poll Tracking | LSE Poll Tracking |
|---|---|---|
| Per cent | Per cent | |
| Last Change | 17 March | 19 March |
| Labour | 32 | 32 |
| Conservatives | 37 | 36 |
| Liberal Democrats | 19 | 20 |
| Other Parties | 12 | 12 |
The gap between Labour and the Conservatives closes to four percent for the first time in our measure for today. The Tories have lost apoint to the ‘Other’ parties since yesterday and are down to 36 per cent support. The Lib Dems are unchanged at 20 per cent – it looks like they will stay at about this level (up from their 17/18 per cent levels several weeks ago).
The Metro/Harris Interactive poll released today is interesting as it puts the Tories on 36 per cent as well, and the Lib Dems relatively close to our measure on 18 per cent. However, like the Angus Reid Poll we discussed yesterday (which put Labour on 26 per cent), this poll puts Gordon Brown’s party on 28 per cent, an 8 per cent gap. Can we attribute this gap to differences in polling methods between companies, or is it something deeper?
Betting odds and the Election as of 19 March
| Conservative Majority | Labour Majority | No Majority | Conservatives Most Seats | Labour Most Seats | Lib Dems most Seats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes | 8/13 | 10/1 | 13/8 | 1/7 | 4/1 | 200/1 |
| Betfair | 5/7 | 13/1 | 15/8 | 2/9 | 9/2 | 449/1 |
| William Hill | 4/6 | 15/2 | 5/4 | 1/6 | 7/2 | 125/1 |
Two minor changes to election betting odds since our last update on Monday. Betfair’s odds of Labour having the most seats return down slightly to 9/2 (the same as the previous week) from 4/1. The only other change in any score is also from Betfair – the Lib Dems’ odd of having the most seats have fallen slightly from 499/1 to 449/1.
Seat Projections
Changes from UK Polling Report today as they predict 307 seats for the Tories, 264 for Labour and 49 for the Lib Dems. The remaining 31 seats are gained by the Other parties such as Respect. While this is an increase of seats for the Conservatives and a drop for Labour since our last UK polling report update on Tuesday; 307 seats is still 19 short of a Conservative majority, and would still result in a hung parliament.
Click here for more information on our polling measure.
