Latest Poll Information for 8 March
|Party||BBC Poll Tracking||LSE Poll Tracking|
|Per cent||Per cent|
|Last Change||6 March||8 March|
Once again, very little change on on our polling figures from last week, with the Liberal Democrats only gaining one point since last week, using the LSE Expert’s measure. Individual polls over the last few days however, have had interesting results – the Mail on Sunday’s poll had Labour on 34 per cent and the Conservatives only two points above on 36 per cent. In marked contrast, the ICM/News of the World poll (which the BBC displays as its lates poll) had the parties on 31 and 40 percent respectively, a gap more four times greater (9 per cent) than the Mail on Sunday’s poll. Some media outlets had predicted at least a small swing away from the Conservatives due to the ‘Ashcroft factor’, but our measure does not seem to have borne this out.
Electoral Calculus has updated its seat predictions – with 315 for the conservatives, 252 for Labour, 50 for the Liberal Democrats and 33 for other parties. This would leave the Conservatives 11 seats short of what was needed for a majority, and a hung parliament. The UK Polling Report’s blog is predicting a hung parliament with the Conservatives at 289 seats, 37 short, and Labour very close behind on 286 seats.