general election 2015

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    Predicting the results for the 2020 general election? We’re still not sure about the results from 2015!

Predicting the results for the 2020 general election? We’re still not sure about the results from 2015!

Last Thursday, the UK went to the polls. While different parts of the country voted in different elections for posts of varying significance, political observers could draw conclusions from a wide and varied set of results. Here, Alun Wyburn-Powell gives his take on proceedings, and on the news that the Conservatives may be forced to re-win seats that they […]

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    Representative samples are an issue for the pollsters – but so are respondents who lie

Representative samples are an issue for the pollsters – but so are respondents who lie

The British Polling Council recently published their report about what went wrong with the polls in the 2015 general election. The report dismissed problems associated with voter registration, question wording, postal voting and mode of interviewing and opted for unrepresentative samples as the key factor in explaining what happened. Here, Paul Whiteley and Harold Clarke make the case for […]

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    The lessons of Clacton and Heywood: Why UKIP will damage the Tories in 2015 but may ultimately harm Labour

The lessons of Clacton and Heywood: Why UKIP will damage the Tories in 2015 but may ultimately harm Labour

Douglas Carswell has become the first UK MP with an easy win in the Clacton by-election. UKIP has also performed strongly in the Heywood by-election, taking 38% of the vote. Two strong UKIP performances, resulting in a Tory loss in one and a Labour win in the other. The results are indicative of what may happen in the 2015 […]

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    The traditional parties should be on their guard for a Green surge

The traditional parties should be on their guard for a Green surge

The Green Party has seen a significant rise in party membership and voting intention. Sarah Birch investigates where the Greens’ new support is coming from and what accounts for the rising popularity. She finds that the Greens may now be attracting voters from across a wider spectrum of the population, which should give MPs looking to retain their seats in 2015 cause for concern.
In the run-up to […]

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    Presenting a new model for forecasting the 2015 General Election

Presenting a new model for forecasting the 2015 General Election

With the 2015 General Election approaching in the distance, Chris Hanretty, Benjamin Lauderdale and Nick Vivyan have launched Election Forecast UK. Here they explain their model and the assumptions that underpin it and providing some preliminary predictions: they find another hung parliament is more likely than not (68 per cent) and that the Conservatives will edge Labour in seats (301 to […]

General election 2015: What do the bookmakers say?

Chris Hanretty analyses the current bookmakers predictions for the general election 2015. The odds from Ladbrokes imply Labour will fall short of a majority, he argues.

At the time of writing, bookmakers Ladbrokes offer odds on the winning parties in 449 of the 632 mainland Britain constituencies. Betting odds offer useful information about the probability of events happening. A bookmaker that […]

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    Five minutes with John Curtice (part 3): “The problem facing the Conservatives is that so far this is a voteless economic recovery”

Five minutes with John Curtice (part 3): “The problem facing the Conservatives is that so far this is a voteless economic recovery”

Democratic Audit’s Sean Kippin recently interviewed the polling and public opinion specialist John Curtice. Here, he argues that the Conservatives will find it very difficult to win a majority in the House of Commons in 2015, and that Ed Miliband has not succeeded in framing a compelling narrative to justify voting Labour. 

The General Election polls are quite erratic but […]

How smaller parties fare in coalition: Lessons for the Liberal Democrats in the run-up to 2015

The Lib Dems face the “unity-distinctiveness dilemma”: they must defend the overall coalition record whilst also emphasising distinct achievements. In a recent paper based on international case studies, Akash Paun & Robyn Munro set out five lessons for the Lib Dems as the party seeks to avoid electoral collapse in May 2015. As the UK coalition government heads towards its endgame, the two parties of […]