Exit negotiations

What precisely does ‘Canada +++’ mean?

The Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, David Davis, has described his plans for a future trading arrangement with the EU as ‘Canada plus plus plus’. But what precisely does this expression mean, if anything, and what are the trade and political implications? Andrew Blick (KCL and the Federal Trust) explains.

The process of UK departure from the EU has begun […]

Keeping freedom of movement is the top Brexit priority for young people

What are young people’s priorities in the Brexit negotiations? In focus groups held around the country, Shakuntala Banaji and Sam Mejias (LSE) found a majority want to keep the right to freedom of movement and maintain trade links with Europe. They also complained about the lack of political education in British schools, which they felt left adults ill-prepared to vote.

Young people in our focus […]

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    Brexit is a blank sheet of paper that can never be filled in

Brexit is a blank sheet of paper that can never be filled in

The frenzied negotiations to conclude the first phase of Brexit negotiations have usefully clarified the real choices faced by the British government in the second phase. The ambiguous and variously defined terms “soft” and “hard” Brexit have outlived their usefulness. As it turns out, Brexit is a blank sheet of paper that can never be filled in, writes Brendan […]

Brexit readiness score update: UK gets 22 out of 100

In the past three months, the possibility of an orderly Brexit has increased markedly, writes Simeon Djankov (LSE). He now estimates the Brexit readiness score at 22 out of 100.

In the past three months, the possibility of an orderly Brexit has increased markedly. In particular, the European Union and the United Kingdom have negotiated a transition period lasting two years. […]

Now is the moment of truth: Britain must set out a realistic Brexit negotiating position

Britain’s current negotiating position with the EU is contradictory and unrealistic. It must set out a feasible plan in the early weeks of 2018 if it wants to avoid inflicting further economic damage on itself, writes Joaquín Almunia (LSE European Institute). There is no more time to waste.

Now the European Council has given permission for the second phase of Brexit negotiations to proceed, the […]

A deal – any deal – is clearly better than no deal

Now we know: a deal – any deal – is clearly better than no deal. After a frantic overnight scramble to agree the wording and the Prime Minister’s dramatic early hours’ flight to Brussels, the EU’s leaders are now willing to draw a line under phase one of the Brexit negotiations. Below, Iain Begg (LSE) explains the deal that has been […]

The DUP scuppered a Brexit deal for all the wrong reasons

Why did the DUP veto the proposed border arrangements for Northern Ireland? It was not because of pragmatic considerations, writes Anthony Costello (University College Cork), but through the simple desire to reassert unionism – even at the cost of a hard and damaging Brexit. Only if Northern Ireland can negotiate a new power-sharing deal will it be possible to […]

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    Why the Republic and Northern Ireland need shared regulatory frameworks

Why the Republic and Northern Ireland need shared regulatory frameworks

On 4 December, the UK and the EU failed to reach an agreement to move on to the next stage of the Brexit talks, with reports suggesting the Democratic Unionist Party had refused to accept proposed concessions on the Irish border. Anand Menon explains why there are strong reasons for shared regulatory frameworks on both sides of the Irish […]

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    May’s Irish dilemma is a precursor of even more intractable dilemmas of Brexit to come

May’s Irish dilemma is a precursor of even more intractable dilemmas of Brexit to come

Those who wished the UK to leave the EU fell into two quite different camps, those who wanted Brexit to mark a decisive break in the economic and social life of the United Kingdom; and those who wanted Brexit to take place with minimal social and economic disruption. Brendan Donnelly (Federal Trust) argues that this division is at the heart […]

Ultimately, public opinion is unlikely to tolerate a hard Brexit

Given the high costs associated with a hard Brexit, argues Dennis Shen (Scope Ratings), it is unlikely to happen. The EU27 see no advantage in significant concessions and the challenge of maintaining public support for a hard Brexit is considerable. A transition period concluding in a soft Brexit – or even ‘Breversal’ – are the most likely outcomes.

The UK government’s objective remains a […]