Monthly Archives: March 2010

State of the Race for 31 March

Posted by Chris Gilson.

The Conservative’s lead over Labour continues to widen in both of our measures today, to 7 per cent.  In our polling measure, Labour (again) loses one point and the Tories gain one.  Is this the post-budget fall that we discussed last week? Or perhaps the Tories’ recent negative advertising campaign is working? What is […]

March 31st, 2010|Uncategorized|0 Comments|

State of the Race 29 March

Posted by Chris Gilson.

Last we week we commented on the possibility of the budget affecting the polls (as has been the case in previous years). At the end of last week, we saw the Labour/Tory gap narrow to 3 points (and two in some polls) – this has now widened back to 5 per cent, with Labour losing and […]

March 29th, 2010|Chris Gilson|0 Comments|

State of the Race 26 March

Posted by Chris Gilson and Patrick Dunleavy.

All the recent polls have shown a narrowing of the gap between the Conservatives and Labour. As the recent Hicks-Vivyan analysis on this Blog shows, the Conservatives’ support has drifted down perilously close to the magic number of 35 per cent where the Tory-Labour vote would be evenly balanced (assuming that the Liberal […]

Will a hung parliament endanger fiscal consolidation?

Many commentators fear the detrimental effects of a hung parliament on the speed and depth of fiscal adjustment. Yet an election that fails to deliver a clear majority for a single party need not spell fiscal disaster, says Joachim Wehner – it all depends on how the resulting government manages the situation.

The argument that minority or coalition governments are […]

A shallow or a deeply Hung Parliament?

Posted by Patrick Dunleavy.

All recent projections are pointing to a hung Parliament – where the top party in the Commons does not have an overall majority (that is, 326 or more out of the 650 MPs). But this term covers  two kinds of very different situations:

1. A shallow hung Parliament would occur if one party gets close to the […]

Weekly Political Blog Round up for 26 March

This week we start a new round-up, summarising the election blogosphere.  Posted by Chris Gilson.

Monday saw the breaking of ‘Lobbygate’ with several ex-Cabinet Labour Ministers being found by Channel 4’s Dispatches programme to have offered their influence on government policy for cash. Guido Fawkes’ quote of the day is Stephen Byers’: “I’m like a cab for hire […]

Still a Hung Parliament: Hix-Vivyan Prediction up to 23 March

Posted by Simon Hix and Nick Vivyan.

We have updated our election prediction model, based on national voting intention results from all polls by YouGov, Ipsos-MORI, Populus, ICM, ComRes and Angus Reid with fieldwork up to and including 23 March.

Here is a figure showing the time trends in our “pooling the polls” analysis.  The dots in the figure show the […]

State of the Race 24 March

Posted by Chris Gilson and Patrick Dunleavy.

Today marks the first clear change for all the parties’ support in our measure since we began tracking polls in early March. Labour falls two points to 30 per cent support; and the Conservatives and the Lib Dems also fall by two percent each. The Tory lead over Labour stays rather consistent though, […]