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    We are entering an era in which multi-party coalitions are the norm rather than the exception

We are entering an era in which multi-party coalitions are the norm rather than the exception

On its own, the fact that the 2010 general election produced a coalition government does not tell us much. But Josh Cowls argues that a repeat experience in 2015, and a second coalition government with a broad and diverse mandate, would herald the end of single-party government in the UK.

Consider the following scenario. An indifferent British electorate shrugs its […]

How will the coalition end? Cameron and Clegg may look to the precedent set by the 1945 caretaker government

Alun Wyburn-Powell provides a historical account of the 1945 caretaker government and argues that it provides a useful model for thinking about when the current coalition might end. Whilst obviously very different situations, there is good logic in parting some months prior to the start of the 2015 campaign for both the LibDems and Tories. It would allow a bit more freedom […]

The lack of attention by the government to the overlapping effects of April’s welfare changes is indicative of a poorly thought-through process

Adam Tinson analyses the combined impacts of the individual changes to the social security system which have come into force this month. He focuses on four major changes: the bedroom tax, the replacement of council tax benefit, the overall benefit cap and the uprating of out of work benefits and some elements of tax credits.  A great deal of attention has […]

The ‘progressive alliance’ idea is no longer a meaningful basis for a Labour-LibDem rapprochement, but there is much common ground that remains between the two parties

Michael Kenny argues that, despite how surprising it may sound, there is a lot of areas of agreement between the Liberal Democrats and Labour that would allow for a coalition between the two parties were the situation to arise in the future. Given the flurry of speculation about whether the current coalition might be followed in time by another made up of […]

The government has misrepresented research findings on ‘troubled families’, blaming the poor, not coalition policies, for rising poverty levels

The government’s use of multiple deprivation as a proxy for anti-social behaviour implies that poorer people are all potential criminals. Ruth Levitas argues that the government’s policies either illustrate a statistical incompetency or conceal rising levels of poverty spilling from government policy. The government recently launched its ‘Troubled Families Programme’. This offers payments by results to Local Authorities in England […]

Another hung parliament? The difference between a Labour or Conservative Government in 2015 may come down to a handful of Midlands’ votes

The Conservatives could lose 100 parliamentary seats if they ignore the rot in their vote share that is spreading across Northern cities and boroughs writes Lewis Baston. Another strong vote for UKIP could also gift Labour some vital Midlands seats. The pattern of votes cast in recent local elections suggests that the northern and southern electorates are continuing to polarise. The […]

The coalition is at least as likely to end up shipwrecked as it is to sail through, or at least stay afloat, until 2015

Liberal Democrat MPs may soon find themselves watching a slow motion car crash while their Conservative counterparts might feel that their ‘business arrangement’ has served its purpose. Either way, a parliamentary full-term, while not impossible, remains less likely than an early and potentially messy, dénouement, writes Tim Bale. Both Patrick Dunleavy and Chris Hanretty have recently had a stab at […]

The Coalition Government has only a 1 in 3 chance of lasting its term. Statistical modelling predicts its fall in October 2014

There has been much recent talk about the possibility of the Coalition government falling before the parliamentary term is up. Chris Hanretty uses a quantitative statistical model to suggest that this is indeed probable, and that the best prediction indicates the government will fall in October 2014.  If I were David Cameron or Nick Clegg, I’d be fairly worried on or around the […]

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Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported
This work by British Politics and Policy at LSE is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported.