General Election 2015 Blog

  • Permalink Gallery

    To explain voting intentions, income is more important for the Conservatives than for Labour

To explain voting intentions, income is more important for the Conservatives than for Labour

Does income matter for vote intention? In this post, Alexandre Afonso looks into the relationships between income, education, redistribution, and vote intention in the context of the forthcoming election. He shows that Labour’s support is stable across most of the income distribution, and that Conservative support peaks amongst those with higher incomes. Additionally, while a majority of Conservatives voters oppose the […]

All change in Scotland?

The independence referendum in Scotland played a decisive role in galvanising support for the SNP and leading many Labour voters to abandon ship. In this article, Eric Shaw reflects on Labour’s predicament in Scotland.

Arriving to the leadership a few short months ago, Jim Murphy knew he had a tough fight on his hands to save as many of Labour’s 41 […]

  • Permalink Gallery

    Polling divergence – phone versus online and established versus new

Polling divergence – phone versus online and established versus new

It has been suggested in recent weeks that one source of variation in the polls of vote intention for the general election is the difference between traditional phone polls, and those polls that are conducted online. In this post, Matt Singh recasts the debate by focussing on the difference between newer and more established pollsters. He finds that polls from more established […]

The top rate of income tax

If a new government were to raise the top rate of income tax, it is unlikely that the UK’s highest earners will work less hard but it is likely they will try harder to avoid paying tax. That means tougher enforcement will be needed if taxes rise, says Alan Manning. 

In the 1970s, the highest rate of income tax on […]

Methodology for the ElectionsEtc.com forecast

In this post, Steve Fisher and Jonathan Jones explain their election forecasting model which powers the results presented at Electionsetc.com. Here they explain their model and the assumptions that underpin it and provide some predictions for May 7th. They predict a that there will be a seriously hung parliament, that there is a 70% chance that the Conservatives will be the largest […]

Will Ed become PM?

Recent coverage of the election from May2015.com has suggested that there are few scenarios in which the Conservatives are likely to be able to survive a vote of confidence, meaning that Ed Miliband has a good chance of become Prime Minister after May 7th. In this post, the team at electionforecast.co.uk argue that there is still a considerable degree of uncertainty surrounding […]

  • Permalink Gallery

    On immigration, the proposals of both Labour and the Conservatives disappoint

On immigration, the proposals of both Labour and the Conservatives disappoint

Labour and the Conservatives are both proposing to employ a tougher approach to immigration if they win the election. But, as Alice Bloch and Sonia McKay explain in this article, there are limitations to ever more punitive approaches to control.

In the run up to the general election, the main political parties have released pronouncements on immigration focusing on borders, rights and undocumented migrants. It is […]

  • Permalink Gallery

    Candidate selection in Northern Ireland: A cold house for women?

Candidate selection in Northern Ireland: A cold house for women?

Across the UK, there is likely to be an increase in the number of women elected as MPs. However, this does not appear to be the case in Northern Ireland. In this post, Neil Matthews argues that formal candidate selection mechanisms are not to blame for the dearth of women competing in Westminster election. Rather, a variety of socio-cultural factors […]