Posted by Patrick Dunleavy and Chris Gilson
Latest Poll Information for 12 March
| Party | BBC Poll Tracking | LSE Poll Tracking |
|---|---|---|
| Per cent | Per cent | |
| Last Change | 11 March | 12 March |
| Labour | 32 | 32 |
| Conservatives | 37 | 37 |
| Liberal Democrats | 17 | 18 |
| Other Parties | 14 | 13 |
No change once again for Labour or the Conservatives using our ‘median smoothing’ measure, their gap has been steady on 5 per cent for the last week. The Liberal Democrats have gained one percentage point to 18 per cent, but this is well within their recent range of 17-19 per cent. The BBC uses the YouGov poll of 11 March as its latest measure, and it is mostly similar to ours with the main two parties on 32 and 37 percent support. Today’s YouGov poll however, puts the Conservatives a mere three percentage points ahead of Labour. There have been several polls in the last two weeks that have given a gap of 4 or 5 per cent. Will this gap continue to narrow in the coming days and weeks?
We are still in the phoney war before the election campaign itself kicks off in earnest with the Budget on 24 March. But for Team Cameron the convergence of the Tory and Labour poll ratings must have placed a burning couple of questions on the agenda:
1. Where did our lead go?
The disappearing lead is perhaps the most easily answered. It seems to reflect the increase in optimism amongst voters that has been in train for a long time, without Gordon Brown or the government seeing any of the benefits. Now suddenly this long-run change has begun to pay dividends for Labour, and there’s not much that Conservative HQ can do to stop this kind of adjustment.
2. Should we be re-launching the Conservative campaign this weekend to stop the rot?
With only two weeks to go till the Budget, the mood in the Cameron team is for hanging on and hoping for the best. But if the opinion polls go to parity with nothing to choose between the top 2 parties, or even start to show a Labour lead, there are potent risks for the Conservatives. Stand by for some chewed fingernails amongst Cameron aides.
