| Party | BBC Poll Tracking | LSE Poll Tracking |
|---|---|---|
| Per cent | Per cent | |
| Last Change | 3 March | 5 March |
| Labour | 33 | 32 |
| Conservatives | 38 | 38 |
| Liberal Democrats | 16 | 17 |
| Other Parties | 13 | 13 |
No change in either measure from yesterday’s update, with the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats solidly on 38 and 17 per cent respectively. Labour looks to be settling at about the 32 per cent mark. This is all cold comfort to those who might be concerned about a hung parliament, and will not add to the downward pressure on the pound that began earlier this week.
As there is little change in the polls, we could look to another indicator of potential electoral performance, the UK betting institutions:
Betting odds and the Election as of 5 March
| Conservative Majority | Labour Majority | No Majority/Hung Parliament | Conservatives Most Seats | Labour Most Seats | Lib Dems most Seats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes | 4/7 | 10/1 | 7/4 | 1/7 | 4/1 | 200/1 |
| Betfair | 4/6 | 13/1 | 15/8 | 2/11 | 9/2 | 99/1 |
| William Hill | 8/13 | 9/1 | 5/4* | 1/6 | 7/2 | 80/1 |
As you can see, there really is very little variance across the betting institutions, although William Hill seems to be slightly more confident in a Labour majority and having the most seats than the other two. Ladbrokes gives no benefit of the doubt to the Liberal Democrats at 200/1 while the other two are slightly more generous with 99 and 80 to 1 odds respectively. The most close to even odds are for either a Conservative majority or a hung parliament and/or no majority. It would seem the betting firms are taking their cues from widespread predictions of those outcomes.
