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May 3rd, 2010

State of the Race for Monday 3 May


Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

Blog Admin

May 3rd, 2010

State of the Race for Monday 3 May


Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

Posted by Patrick Dunleavy.

Update on Poll Information and MPs projections for 11.00 on Monday 3 May

As the race enters its final stages, our new at-a-glance State of the Race gives you all the information you’ll need, all in one place. From now until Friday morning we will update these tables on a rolling basis so that they always reflects the five most recently published polls, and what the outcome means immediately in terms of the top three parties’ seats in the House of Commons.

Vote Shares

Votes for the top three
parties (and Others)
LSE % Vote SharesCompare Sky News % Vote Shares
Liberal Democrats2727
Other Parties1010
Tory Lead over Labour+6+7

Projected MPs

Projected MPs
LSE seats
Compare BBC ‘polls of polls’ seats projection
Liberal Democrats9484
Other Parties1411
Northern Ireland1818
Labour lead over Tories+29+3
Labour short of working majority (326 seats)-50-56

Technical note: Our poll tracking methodology is described here. For seats projections we use a uniform national swing from the 2005 adjusted results, with some small tweaks for tactical voting. The working majority level is 326 for Labour, but only 318 for the Conservatives, who can rely on Unionist MPs from Northern Ireland to support them.

Brief Commentary

Weekend polls suggested a strengthening Tory lead, but Monday polls suggest no trend, with UKIP and BNP support possibly increasing instead. Sunday polls had the Tories clearly the largest party in the Commons, but now Labour edges ahead in terms of MPs. The race is close fought and opinion is still fluid.

What this means in terms of seats

From the LSE projection, the new political map of the UK would look like this:From the LSE projection, the new political map of the UK would look like this:

How does this map work? Each seat is one dot (irrespective of the size of the area). The white boundaries show the government standard regions.

Advance Notice: Stay with us on Election Night

We’ll be blogging all day and night through Thursday 6 May to 1.30am on Friday 7 May, with the latest updates from LSE’s all-night Election Event, which will also be Webcast live. Bookmark us for an impartial alternative view that cuts through the chatter to the significant developments.

If the seats and government outcome is still substantively unclear at 9.30 am on Friday 7 May, we will restart our coverage until the outcome is resolved.

Even more advance Notice: Post-election analysis and the transition to a new Government

From Friday 7 May this blog will be bringing you the most up-to-date and factually comprehensive analysis of how British voters decided, and what the UK’s voting system did with their preferences. LSE Experts from many disciplines will also be assessing what the election means

– for all the main parties

– for the political and constitutional development of the UK, and

– for the full range of public policies and UK economic development.

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Posted In: Party politics and elections


Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported
This work by British Politics and Policy at LSE is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported.