Using data on generic ballot results back to 1954, Dan Cassino argues that generic ballot measures are most useful in identifying the quality of candidates recruited by a party, not necessarily the outcome of the race. With Republicans expected to slightly underperform their standing on the generic ballot measure this year, the 2018 midterms could look like a wave […]
Republicans trying to pass an Obamacare repeal bill found themselves supporting a historically unpopular bill, and are paying a steep electoral price despite the collapse of the effort. Looking at the results of a new experiment, Dan Cassino finds that support for the bill is costing one powerful incumbent 11 points in a race against an unnamed Democrat.
After the […]
Presidential approval ratings are seen as critical to leveraging Congress, and are therefore important to any President who wishes to achieve legislative reform. Traditionally, Presidents have experienced a ‘honeymoon’ of initially high approval ratings – President Trump has bucked this trend with unprecedentedly low approval ratings for a new President. In new analysis, Dan Cassino finds that each of […]
With his fortunes flagging in the polls, GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump has increasingly spoken of the 2016 election as being ‘rigged’. Dan Cassino looks at how ‘evidence’ of voter fraud might begin to circulate on and after Election Day; evidence which will be fueled by misunderstandings over exit polls, precinct sizes, and how election results are recorded.
The 2016 US […]
On Monday night, over 80 million watched the first presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. We asked some of USAPP’s regular contributors for their thoughts and analysis.
Don’t forget the importance of the debate format: Newly Paul – Appalachian State University
Coverage matters more than the debate itself: Dan Cassino – Fairleigh Dickinson University
A bad night for Trump with […]
Why do Americans buy guns? For many, it’s because they are worried that new gun control measures may stop them from buying guns in the future. Dan Cassino examines the role of the news media – specifically Fox and network news, in driving Americans’ fears about gun control. He finds that while mass shootings do lead to an increase […]
There has been little discussion of the impact of Hillary Clinton’s gender on her electoral prospects, but are American men really ready for a female President? Looking at the results of a new experiment, Dan Cassino finds that the threat to male identity embodied by Clinton is costing her as much as 24 points among men, and bringing her […]
The 2016 election campaign has been marked by the media-driven popularity of New York billionaire, Donald Trump. But to what extent do the media influence how candidates do in the polls? By studying polling data from the 2012 presidential election, Dan Cassino finds that one day of positive media coverage can lift a candidate by as much as 2.5 […]