Economics of Brexit

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    The biggest threat to the City of London is now uncertainty

The biggest threat to the City of London is now uncertainty

Uncertainty is now the biggest threat to the City of London, writes Simeon Djankov. It is not simply a question of whether changes to financial regulation will deter business, but whether the government can deliver on its promises to cut corporate taxes, reform immigration while letting in talent and make corporations more transparent without putting off foreign investors. In […]

Foreign direct investment will remain robust post-Brexit

The UK has been one of the top recipients of FDI among advanced economies and the biggest recipient of FDI flows into the EU. The long-term impact of Brexit is still subject to uncertainty. However, there are reasons to suppose that FDI into the UK will remain robust, especially by companies servicing UK and non-European markets, writes Laza Kekic.

According to […]

Video: Labour markets, welfare & the portability of rights

The world faces major uncertainties –  economic (another economic crisis?), political (instability in the Middle East), environmental (climate change), societal (population ageing) and technical (nuclear safety). To those, add uncertainties connected with Brexit and in connection with the new US administration. In the face of those uncertainties, the welfare state – one of whose major purposes is risk sharing […]

Division, austerity, the gig economy: migration isn’t our biggest labour market problem

Policymakers are beginning to wake up to the cold reality of what Brexit means for immigration. They are right to be alarmed, says Emma Carmel. The gig economy and London’s growth as a financial centre have changed Britain’s labour market radically. Trying to manage it through visas and work permits will stretch a state already buckling under the strain of austerity.

Recent […]

Predictions of Brexit’s impact on finserv have been greatly exaggerated

Brexit will devastate the City and harm European finance – or will it? Wolf-Georg Ringe thinks not. He points out that the EU has shown remarkable flexibility in the past as it tried to fend off financial meltdown. It has ignored state aid rules in order to bail out banks, for example. The deal eventually reached between the UK […]

The economics of Brexit needn’t be quixotic: towards a green industrial strategy for Britain

What remains of Britain’s manufacturing base will suffer outside the single market, write Afzal S. Siddiqui (left) and Max Hänska. Theresa May knows this, but has nonetheless promised to leave it because of the prevailing anti-immigration, inward-turning mood. She would do better to invest in renewable energy technologies – a policy which, as well as enabling the UK to export clean energy, […]

Video: what economic future for the EU and for the UK?

Why have economic forecasts on Brexit proved so wrong? What future for the EU club and for the UK? And what can we say about the general economic outlook? A lecture by Iain Begg, Francisco Torres, and Lorenzo Codogno from the LSE European Institute – delivered as part of the LSE’s lecture series ‘Brexit: Implications for the UK, the EU and the international […]

‘Hurricane Brexit’ – or why economists should admit they can’t always get it right

The Bank of England’s chief economist recently said his profession was “to some degree in crisis” over its failure to predict the 2008 financial crash and – to a lesser extent – the apparent resilience of the UK economy after the Brexit vote. Dimitri Zenghelis looks at how economic forecasting works and explains that its models are not infallible. […]

What trading outside the Single Market looks like

Once the UK has left the Single Market – and assuming it does not join EFTA or negotiate a bespoke deal with the EU – it will have to revert to World Trade Organisation membership. In this extract from its latest report, the LSE Growth Commission explains that in the absence of bilateral deals this will mean determining a universal […]

Britain’s got bills – but will we pay? Settling our EU budget obligations

Settling our financial obligations to the EU could cost up to €6obn. Iain Begg explains why the figure is so high, looks at whether there is much scope for negotiation and asks what would happen if Britain simply refused to pay.

As many a preacher has declaimed, citing Timothy 6:10 from the Bible, ‘the love of money is the root […]