Economics of Brexit

Brexit means inward investment to the UK will fall

Supply chains cross borders many times before components go into a final product in any EU country, write David Bailey, Nigel Driffield and Michail Karoglou. When the UK leaves the Single Market, it will be a less attractive destination for firms wanting to coordinate their resources. The devaluation of sterling also lowers the expected returns from UK investment when translated […]

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    Post-Brexit work visa quotas on EU nationals are likely to favour graduates

Post-Brexit work visa quotas on EU nationals are likely to favour graduates

Businesses that rely on low-skilled EU labour may face hiring difficulties, writes Jonathan Wadsworth. He argues that post-Brexit work visa quotas on EU nationals will probably favour graduates.

Had things gone as most commentators expected, the UK would now be entering hard Brexit talks with the near certainty of leaving the single market and/or customs union and the consequent ending of […]

The pharmaceutical industry is at risk from Brexit

The pharmaceutical industry is at risk from Brexit. Border delays, R&D disruption and regulatory divergence pose hazards to this important industry, writes Jianwei Xu.

Despite numerous debates about the impact of Brexit, the pharmaceutical industry seems to be less eye-catching than other sectors like the manufacturing supply chain and financial services. However, pharmaceuticals are one of the EU’s most important […]

Could the UK join NAFTA? There are considerable downsides

Now the UK is leaving the single market, might it join the North American Free Trade Association (NAFTA)? Daniel Capparelli looks at the practical implications of membership. The onus would be on the UK to comply with existing NAFTA regulations, and this could mean that manufacturers had to produce two different versions of the same product if they wanted […]

Workers’ rights are now a basic element of trade deals. What stance will Britain take?

Labour rights are now a basic component of many of the kinds of trade agreements the UK wants to sign post-Brexit, but there has been little discussion of what sort of provisions the UK wants to see in them. James Harrison and colleagues have found that commitments to workers’ rights on paper are not always enforced. They suggest what a […]

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    Brexit will disrupt financial markets – but systemic risk is unlikely

Brexit will disrupt financial markets – but systemic risk is unlikely

Brexit will probably cause disruption in markets, but systemic risk is unlikely. This is because we’re likely to see increased financial fragmentation and caution in the face of uncertainty, write Jon Danielsson, Robert Macrae and Eva Micheler.

With less than two years until Britain leaves the EU, the implications of Brexit for financial stability are of some concern. Two key central bankers […]

A mountain to climb: the looming problem of the Northern Irish border

For all practical purposes, writes Filippo Biondi, the border between Eire and Northern Ireland has disappeared. Thirty thousand people cross the 500km line each day just in order to go to work. So what will happen when it becomes the land border between the EU and the UK? He analyses the Democratic Unionist Party’s priorities and looks at possible […]

Unpicking ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’: not just meaningless, but unhelpful

In the last of a series of posts on the Government’s ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ stance, Michael Johnson points to the advantages of a preferential deal with the EU. The ‘no deal’ mantra is meaningless, and serves only to obscure both the practical imperatives and the real possibilities of Brexit negotiations.

 
It isn’t just trade….
The consequences […]

Unpicking the ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ mantra: what does ‘no deal’ look like?

“No deal is better than a bad deal,” says Theresa May. But what is actually meant by “no deal”? In the second of three posts about the ramifications of the Government’s position, Michael Johnson looks at what it would mean for trade.

As regards future UK/EU27 trade relations, the common assumption is that if no form of preferential agreement (such […]

Unpicking the “No deal is better than a bad deal” mantra: what would a ‘bad deal’ look like?

Brexit supporters – including Government ministers – regularly claim that when it comes to UK withdrawal from the European Union and future bilateral relations, “no deal is better than a bad deal”.  This mantra is based on confused thinking, writes Michael Johnson, in the first of three posts.  The issues that will arise respectively if the UK successfully negotiates […]