Economics of Brexit

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    Will Brexit be another Black Wednesday for the Conservatives? Lessons from the ERM crisis

Will Brexit be another Black Wednesday for the Conservatives? Lessons from the ERM crisis

In light of the 25th anniversary of Britain’s exit from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, Jane Green and Will Jennings reflect on the damage done to the Conservatives as a result, and the lessons it could hold for the possible impacts of Brexit. They draw on their latest book to explain how the Conservatives’ policy competence over time corresponds […]

Has Brexit made the UK less attractive to high-skilled EU migrants? New evidence

Several UK employers and business representatives have expressed concern that Brexit could damage the country’s ability to attract skilled workers from the rest of the EU. Matthias Busse (left) and Mikkel Barslund (Centre for European Policy Studies) use LinkedIn data to examine whether these concerns are justified. They find support for the view that Brexit has reduced the attractiveness of the UK for recent high-skilled […]

How bad will Brexit really be for the UK?

Long-term forecasts claiming that leaving the EU with no deal on trade would be economically disastrous undermine the UK’s optimal negotiating strategy, writes Graham Gudgin (Policy Exchange). He points out significant flaws in such forecasts and shows why the estimates they table cannot be accepted as accurate.

The great majority of the economic forecasts have concluded that Brexit will damage the […]

The government won’t release its analyses of Brexit’s impact. We have a right to see them

The government has refused to publish its sector-by-sector analyses of the impact of Brexit, arguing that releasing them they would undermine its negotiating position. Molly Scott Cato (MEP for the South West) says businesspeople trying to plan for the future have a right to know what the likely effects of leaving the EU will be.

It was, I thought, a fairly […]

Brexit is a win-win opportunity for the City of London

EU law has constrained the City, argues Barnabas Reynolds, a partner at Shearman & Stearling. It has a chilling effect on business. Outside the Union, Britain will be able to either draft its own rules through an ‘enhanced equivalence’ model – or completely unshackle itself from the EU and adopt a free-market system whose simplicity would attract business. Either outcome would […]

Warning: the cost of Brexit could seriously damage your health service

Leaving the EU would free up more money for the NHS, according to Leave campaigners. This pledge has been all but disowned – and in any case, writes Joan Costa Font (LSE), Brexit will impose further costs on an already cash-strapped service. The biggest effect will be on wage bills, but it will also restrict choice for Britons and raise procurement costs.

Healthcare and […]

Why a hard border with Ireland would put Welsh ports at risk

The Irish Sea is an important link in EU supply chains. Andrew Potter explains that a hard border between the UK and Ireland would make journeys lengthier and may push some trade away from Welsh ports altogether. Around 11,000 local jobs depend on these ports.

Whilst much discussion around trade in the post-Brexit UK focuses on the agreements between the UK and […]

Low-carbon services can enhance UK’s post-Brexit economy

The future of the UK’s trade with the EU and beyond is currently uncertain. What is certain is that the UK will need to secure trade deals to guarantee its future prosperity post-Brexit. But what exactly does the UK have to trade? Maria Carvalho (LSE) explores how exporting more low-carbon services could enhance the UK’s future prosperity.

The government’s post-Brexit customs proposals, published on 15 August, […]

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    The Economists for Brexit predictions are inconsistent with the basic facts of international trade

The Economists for Brexit predictions are inconsistent with the basic facts of international trade

There is a degree of consensus among economists that a Brexit will make us worse off. The exception is recent work by Economists for Brexit. Their forecast of income gains from Brexit contrasts with all other economic analysis, explain Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen.

The possibility of the UK leaving the European Union (EU) has […]

Listen to businesses now – we urgently need a transitional deal

Businesses have been scrambling to prepare for Brexit – but it is only in recent weeks that the government has really begun to engage with the business community, says Nicole Sykes of the CBI. Uncertainty about the nature of the final Brexit deal is starting to bite. We need a two to three year transitional period after 2019 to […]