Economics of Brexit

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    Long read | Brexiteers might have succeeded, but Brexit will fail

Long read | Brexiteers might have succeeded, but Brexit will fail

After the conclusion of negotiations between the twenty-seven EU Member States and Boris Johnson’s government on the UK’s EU withdrawal agreement, Brexiteers seem to finally be on the verge of achieving their goal, writes Thierry Chopin (ESPOL/Bruges). But will Brexit succeed? Probably not, or else in its current form it will cause many losers, including those who voted to leave the […]

Money can’t buy love for Europe but success certainly can

What can the EU do in practice to build its own electoral support? To what extent can Euroscepticism be influenced by EU policies? Analysis of votes in the Brexit referendum suggests that money does not influence voters’ support for Europe, write Riccardo Crescenzi (LSE), Marco Di Cataldo (LSE/Ca’ Foscari University of Venice), and Mara Giua (Roma Tre University). It is […]

Long read | Are opinion polls biased towards Leave?

Much of public opinion polling in the UK is nowadays conducted online. This has many advantages as it allows polls to be conducted more cheaply, but it also runs into several problems. Thiemo Fetzer (University of Warwick) illustrates some of the technical issues that arise using the example of the British Election Study, which is an important point of reference […]

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    Long read | Debunking myths on links between austerity and Brexit

Long read | Debunking myths on links between austerity and Brexit

Thiemo Fetzer (University of Warwick) addresses the misunderstandings and the criticisms of his widely-read 2018 paper “Did Austerity Cause Brexit?”. In August 2018 the Guardian Politics liveblog featured the headline: “Brexit is direct result of austerity and cuts like bedroom tax, research suggests.” The blog contained a set of graphs and paragraphs from his paper, which has since been accepted for publication in […]

Despite ‘Global Britain’, Britain will follow the European trade model for the next few years

The government would like to implement its vision for a ‘Global Britain’ after Brexit. But, says Stephen Woolcock (LSE), for the next few years at least companies are likely to favour the continuity of European trading practices. He looks at the factors shaping that preference.

There are competing visions for British trade policy: ‘Global Britain’, which sees a sovereign Britain […]

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    Permalink The Rebecca Riots pictured in the Illustrated London News, 1843. Image: <a href=Wikimedia Commons. Public domain" />Gallery

    A no-deal Brexit would be very tough for farmers – but will the public sympathise?

A no-deal Brexit would be very tough for farmers – but will the public sympathise?

Upland farmers face losing more than a third of their income in the event of a no-deal Brexit, says Richard Byrne (Harper Adams University). In the past, some farmers have taken direct action when government and supermarket policies have threatened their income – but given the (albeit limited) financial support they can expect to receive, they may find it […]

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    The impact of Brexit on UK firms: reduced investments and decreased productivity

The impact of Brexit on UK firms: reduced investments and decreased productivity

The UK’s decision to leave the EU in the June 2016 referendum was a largely unexpected event that has generated a large, broad, and long-lasting increase in uncertainty. It has also affected some firms more than others depending on the strength of their links to Continental Europe. This column exploits these features and uses a major new survey of […]

Does New Zealand provide Brexit lessons for Britain?

What lessons does New Zealand provide for Brexit Britain? Hamish McDougall (LSE) argues that while parallels between New Zealand and Britain in the event of no-deal Brexit are tenuous, New Zealand’s approach to free trade remains a relevant historical case study.

Insights into a no-deal Brexit can be found, of all places, in 1970s New Zealand, according to a recent Bloomberg news article. This […]

Why no-deal Brexit is a battle for the soul of our nation

Britain is lurching towards an economic, political and moral disaster, writes John Van Reenen (MIT).
We are careening towards the most extreme form of Brexit imaginable – flouncing out of the European Union (EU) after 46 years without any transition plan. Operation Yellowhammer, a leaked secret report from the government’s own officials predicted that the most likely outcome of this no-deal Brexit […]

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    The future of UK services trade is unlikely to be bright, whatever form Brexit takes

The future of UK services trade is unlikely to be bright, whatever form Brexit takes

When it comes to trade in services, leaving the Single Market will result in increased regulatory costs and could have significant effects on the volume and composition of UK services exports, writes Olga Pindyuk.

In the Brexit debate, trade in services has been largely overlooked in favour of trade in goods. This is despite the UK being the second biggest […]