Economics of Brexit

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    The impact of Brexit on UK firms: reduced investments and decreased productivity

The impact of Brexit on UK firms: reduced investments and decreased productivity

The UK’s decision to leave the EU in the June 2016 referendum was a largely unexpected event that has generated a large, broad, and long-lasting increase in uncertainty. It has also affected some firms more than others depending on the strength of their links to Continental Europe. This column exploits these features and uses a major new survey of […]

Does New Zealand provide Brexit lessons for Britain?

What lessons does New Zealand provide for Brexit Britain? Hamish McDougall (LSE) argues that while parallels between New Zealand and Britain in the event of no-deal Brexit are tenuous, New Zealand’s approach to free trade remains a relevant historical case study.

Insights into a no-deal Brexit can be found, of all places, in 1970s New Zealand, according to a recent Bloomberg news article. This […]

Why no-deal Brexit is a battle for the soul of our nation

Britain is lurching towards an economic, political and moral disaster, writes John Van Reenen (MIT).
We are careening towards the most extreme form of Brexit imaginable – flouncing out of the European Union (EU) after 46 years without any transition plan. Operation Yellowhammer, a leaked secret report from the government’s own officials predicted that the most likely outcome of this no-deal Brexit […]

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    The future of UK services trade is unlikely to be bright, whatever form Brexit takes

The future of UK services trade is unlikely to be bright, whatever form Brexit takes

When it comes to trade in services, leaving the Single Market will result in increased regulatory costs and could have significant effects on the volume and composition of UK services exports, writes Olga Pindyuk.

In the Brexit debate, trade in services has been largely overlooked in favour of trade in goods. This is despite the UK being the second biggest […]

Boris Johnson’s real agenda: The ‘Singapore scenario’

While immediate political attention has focussed on urgent questions of how, when or if Britain’s new Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, will succeed in taking the UK out of the EU, the longer-term agenda of a Johnson-led Conservative administration has been pushed into the background. This is unfortunate. Johnson’s dream, should his premiership survive, is of a post-Brexit Britain akin […]

To deal or not to deal: these are the questions

Why is the new government prepared to countenance no deal, when it would be so damaging to Britain? Iain Begg (LSE) says the question is not whether but how much it would harm the country.

To judge by the early pronouncements of the Johnson government, a ‘no-deal’ Brexit is not only worth contemplating, but could well occur. Although both sides […]

Long read: Post-Brexit trade policy must serve British society, not just free trade

Brexit provides an opportunity to agree new Economic Partnership Agreements with the world’s largest economies such as the US, China, and India. These cannot make up for the trade it will lose through leaving the Single Market, according to Swati Dhingra (CEP & LSE) and Josh De Lyon (CEP). Nevertheless, the UK has an opportunity to forge a new […]

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    No-deal Cabinet: time for another Bank of England stress test

No-deal Cabinet: time for another Bank of England stress test

With the new Cabinet made up of ‘Vote Leave veterans and right-wing free marketers’, Costas Milas discusses how the Bank of England may want to respond.

Evan Esar quipped in his Comic Dictionary that statistics is ‘the only science that enables different experts using the same figures to draw different conclusions’. This definitely applies to the notorious Brexit divorce bill […]

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    Brexit behaviourally: which do you think is the bigger figure – £350m a week or £4,300 per household per year?

Brexit behaviourally: which do you think is the bigger figure – £350m a week or £4,300 per household per year?

The Leave campaign’s ‘£350m a week’ figure cut through to voters in the 2016 referendum, while the Treasury’s ‘£4,300 per household per year’ didn’t. Was the relationship between the two figures intuitively self-evident? One is six times bigger than the other. Tessa Buchanan (University College London) looks at some of the behavioural lessons that can be learned from the campaign.

Psychologist Daniel […]

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    The impact of Brexit on Australia’s trading relations with the UK and EU

The impact of Brexit on Australia’s trading relations with the UK and EU

If the UK is to use Brexit as an opportunity to negotiate new trade agreements with other states outside of Europe, then Australia arguably represents one of the best examples of a future partner. Yet the Brexit referendum also coincided with renewed attempts to develop closer trade relations between the EU and Australia. Laura Allison-Reumann, Margherita Matera and Philomena […]