Economics of Brexit

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    Britain can once again be the master of its own trading destiny

Britain can once again be the master of its own trading destiny

Wherever one stands on the question of Brexit, it undoubtedly presents opportunities, denied to Britain for almost half a century, to embrace its historic role as a global trading power. Britain can once again be the master of its own trading destiny, argues George Brandis QC (Australian High Commissioner).

A short distance from Australia House on the Strand, a commemorative plaque marks […]

Inflation at 3.5% and a two-year recession: the impact of no deal

We hear a great deal about the risks of a no-deal Brexit, but what would the economic effect really be? Ana Boata (Euler Hermes) and Michael Heise (Allianz) look at the economic hit the UK has already suffered as a result of Brexit and forecast the likely effect of a disorderly departure in March, as well as the impact […]

Neglected options for a Brexit deal in the UK

Even the government’s preferred deal gives us no idea of the trade and investment arrangements after the transition period. Yet it – or no deal at all – appear to be the only options on offer. Andrew Hughes Hallett (George Mason University and the University of St Andrews) looks at the impact they would have on the UK economy, […]

Voting with their money: Brexit and outward investment by UK firms

Are firms moving investment abroad because of Brexit? Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain, Dennis Novy and Thomas Sampson (LSE) use a ‘doppelganger method’ to estimate how foreign direct investment would have evolved without the vote for Brexit. They find a 12% increase in the number of new investments made by UK firms in EU countries, and an 11% fall in […]

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    Long read: Brexit uncertainty must not prevent strategic planning and longer-term economic re-orientation

Long read: Brexit uncertainty must not prevent strategic planning and longer-term economic re-orientation

Brexit is not a simple story of disruption. Policy-makers in the throes of Brexit should not forget another driver of structural economic transformation: the so-called ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’. Analysing the two drivers of labour market disruption together demonstrates the unique challenge of reconciling future planning with handling immediate shocks. Current uncertainties must not prevent strategic scenario planning and longer-term […]

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    Long read: There is no such thing as completely frictionless trade across a border

Long read: There is no such thing as completely frictionless trade across a border

The concept of a frictionless border is a constant theme of the Brexit debate. But as Anna Jerzewska (British Chambers of Commerce) points out there is no such thing as completely frictionless trade across a border. Brexit potentially adds new border formalities and checks when moving physical goods across the border, and these extra formalities add to border friction. The […]

February 6th, 2019|Economics of Brexit, Exit negotiations, UK and European law|Comments Off on Long read: There is no such thing as completely frictionless trade across a border|

How Brexit is already damaging London’s economy

Every time a business or agency relocates out of London because of Brexit, the capital’s revenues suffer. Heidi Alexander (London deputy mayor for transport) says it is time to recognise how vital London is to Britain’s wider economy.

The departure of the European Medicines Agency from its home in Canary Wharf to Amsterdam may sound like an odd place to […]

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    The future of EU international investment policy – What clues to take from NAFTA 2.0?

The future of EU international investment policy – What clues to take from NAFTA 2.0?

What can the latest revision of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between Canada, Mexico and the US tell us about the potential future of EU international investment policy? Robert Basedow (LSE) suggests that NAFTA 2.0 indicates the love story of OECD economies with investment protection agreements and investor-state dispute settlement mechanisms appears to be coming to an end, […]

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    Free-market conservatives, how is Brexit working out for you?

Free-market conservatives, how is Brexit working out for you?

The two and a half years following the EU referendum have exposed the wishful thinking that drove many free-market conservatives to support Brexit. In this post, Dalibor Rohac (American Enterprise Institute) asks how Brexit is working out for those who supported it on libertarian grounds.

 

Last week, I witnessed a somewhat extraordinary occurrence take place on Twitter. A former prominent Leave supporter and […]

What no-deal really means for customs on the Northern Irish border

We still have little idea what the customs arrangements on the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland will be after 29 March. A border control expert explains why the border is so crucial and sets out the scale of the task customs and other regulatory bodies on both sides of the border will face.

If the United Kingdom leaves the EU as scheduled, […]