Philippe Mongrain estimates that the Conservatives will win around 37% of the popular vote and Labour around 29%. This confirms that, while a Conservative majority government is not out of reach, a minority government appears much more likely.
Forecasting the upcoming general election is both puzzling, not least because, unlike past elections, traditional bread-and-butter issues will not be at the […]
With independence competing with Brexit as the predominant political issue in Scotland, the Scottish Government has called for a second independence referendum to take place by the end of 2020. Anthony Salamone argues that, even if the UK Government were to agree, this timetable would be ambitious and could limit the deliberative nature of the referendum.
Even without Brexit, Westminster […]
Using a forecasting model that captures both the cyclical nature of the competition for power and the important role of prime ministers in elections, Matthew Lebo and Stephen Fisher predict 311 Conservative seats to 268 for Labour.
Rafael Behr said of 2018’s local election results that “Brexit has caused Britain’s political pendulum to stick.” Maybe the forthcoming general election will […]
Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee has produced a report into Russian interference in UK politics, but it cannot be published without government approval. Andrew Defty explains that Number 10’s failure to release the report before Parliament was dissolved is the latest in a series of government actions that have hindered effective parliamentary scrutiny of the intelligence and security services. […]
Walter Bossert, Andrew E. Clark, Conchita D’Ambrosio, and Anthony Lepinteur explain how insecurity affects political outcomes. Specifically, they find that rather than encouraging a withdrawal from politics, economic insecurity seems to encourage political activism, and in particular support for the right.
Economic insecurity is attracting growing attention in social, academic, and policy circles. It has arguably risen for a number […]
Will this December’s general election prove a watershed contest, or a repeat of the status quo? To help make sense of developments, Pippa Norris discusses various distinct types of election outcomes and their application to the current UK context.
After a series of parliamentary defeats and constant frustration in attempts to get his Brexit deal passed, Prime Minister Boris Johnson decided […]
David Thackeray and Richard Toye explain how manifestos came to be increasingly central to the practice of governing, as well as the various ambiguities that surround these documents and their purpose.
In June 2019, three years after the UK voted to leave the European Union, Conservative Party members in Bracknell passed a motion of no confidence in their MP, […]
Forecasting the 2019 General Election using the PM and the Pendulum model
How much might the polls change? Looking back to 2010, 2015, and 2017
Forecasting the popular vote in the 2019 General Election
What a Scottish independence referendum in 2020 would mean
Which women knew about state pension age changes? Inequalities in awareness and their implications
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How much might the polls change? Looking back to 2010, 2015, and 2017
How much might the polls change? Looking back to 2010, 2015, and 2017
Now in our second week of the general election campaign, the polls continue to shift, with the Conservatives and Labour gaining ground, and the Liberal Democrats and Brexit Party on a downward trajectory. In his second blog of the campaign, Joe Greenwood considers these changes with reference to movements in support in the previous three general elections.
In my blog […]