Europe’s Future and Jihad

By Roberto Orsi

800px-1595_Europa_MercatorRecent events in Paris have been commented upon by political leaders and public intellectuals alike with the recurring argument that France will emerge stronger from this incident. Countless other commentators have repeated that the ideas of an open, democratic, liberal, rule-of-law-based, multicultural, sexually-liberated, “free” society, with open borders, freedom of speech, of religion, of circulation, what can be termed “the European way”, will prevail. The standard narrative of the events in Paris has insisted on their nature of a crime perpetrated by a puny group of alienated minds, who are waging war against “Western values” and who will certainly be defeated. That may be so.

However, looking at it from a broader perspective, a much less reassuring picture of what is taking place starts to take form, alongside with a series of admittedly disturbing and regrettable questions, born out of a sudden radical doubt. Considering the trajectory connecting the 2004 and 2005 bombings in Madrid and London a decade ago to the unfolding scenario of these days and projecting it towards the future, it is worth investigating whether the precise opposite of what European leaders claim is occurring. What if Europe finds itself on a completely wrong track?

A rising sense that the continent finds itself in a systemic political crisis of historical proportions can be felt everywhere. Political leaders and intellectuals are panicking to construct a version and interpretation of developments in the Old Continent, one which may preserve the integrity of the “European way” in the face on the one hand of exponentially growing signs of deterioration and decay, on the other, of rising criticisms, which pre-date the recent massacres, and whose symptoms are ubiquitous. Among these, certainly the most prominent appear to be the rise of “populist”, parties such as UKIP, Front National, and Alternative für Deutschland, the spread of the PEGIDA demonstrations, the heated “immigration debates” in every country. Many are trying to argue that these developments constitute the regurgitation of some uncomfortable past, or are the product of sheer ignorance or prejudice. Much more likely, as even some liberal and radical commentators have started to accept, they constitute the reaction to some genuine and severe political problem, such as the rapid spread of degradation, the worsening of economic conditions, the loss of territorial control by the authorities, the place of minorities communities, of past, present and future demographic trends (including migrations) in Europe. None of these will go away with some “debate” or “demonstration”, but it will certainly continue to grow, and even escalate, in the foreseeable future. It does not seem to be too far-fetched to argue at this point that European politics (and perhaps world politics with a different focus), will be dominated by demographic questions, particularly concerning the rapidly increasing ethnic-religious fragmentation of European countries, for many decades to come, particularly considering their economic and security implications.

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Interview with Nikos Chrysoloras: “Europe needs to find its ambition again!”

Euro Crisis in the Press is proud to introduce a new series of interviews with influential analysts and commentators as well as global public intellectuals on different dimensions of the public discourse surrounding the current European Crisis.

Nikos-ChrysolorasIn today’s interview, award-winning Brussels-based EU correspondent of the Greek daily ‘Kathimerini’, Nikos Chrysoloras, responds to the questions of our Managing Editors, Vassilis Paipais and Roberto Orsi. Dr. Chrysoloras thinks that the European credit-based economy has reached its limits and that a major restructuring of Europe’s growth model is urgently needed. He notes that populism has plagued European leaders and media coverage alike, and argues that while in 2007 European media failed to appreciate the signs aplenty of an impending crisis they have subsequently done a good job analysing its various aspects in depth.    

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Dr. Chrysoloras, there is little doubt that Europe is undergoing an unprecedented crisis. The crisis itself can be seen as having multiple dimensions: a financial crisis of the Eurozone and the Euro as a common currency, an institutional EU-wide crisis, a crisis of the European post-war social and economic model or even a European identity crisis. From your point of view, what is the most important aspect of the crisis?

The crisis has been a dramatic revelation of the limitations of a credit-based growth model. We used cheap money to compensate for losses in productivity, creativity and innovation in the West. In the case of Greece, it was the state that was borrowing to fuel growth; in the rest of Europe and the US, it was the private sector. In this way, we gradually buried ourselves under a mountain of debt. When the bubble burst, there was nowhere to hide.

For Europe, the ugly truth is that there is simply not enough “real” wealth that is being produced in our continent to sustain our enviable standards of living and our unique social model. In other words, the stagnation of Europe’s economies over the past two years, at a much lower level compared to the years before the crisis, may not be a just a byproduct of deflationary fiscal policies.

Let’s take a look at the factors that have historically contributed to the economic well-being of nations and empires: a robust birthrate, access to natural resources, education, technological progress and military power. The last has usually, but not always, directly relied on the others. Which of these conditions are in place today? Europe’s access to natural resources is limited. Whereas the US has fully exploited the shale gas revolution in a bid to strengthen its energy independence – thereby changing the geopolitical equilibrium – Europe is in terms of energy still largely dependent on Russia. In terms of defense, things are even worse as Europe has neither the ability nor the ambition to project its power on a global scale and is fully dependent on Washington. More worryingly, if the current demographic trend continues, then in just a few decades almost a third of Europeans will be over 65.

Furthermore, according to the World Bank’s recent Golden Growth report, Europe is a laggard in terms of R&D even compared to states like India. “What has been more perplexing is Europe’s generally poor performance in the most technology-intensive sectors – the Internet, biotechnology, computer software, healthcare equipment, and semiconductors,” the report says. The same report emphasises that European productivity is on the wane. Meanwhile, the global ranking of European universities is getting worse compared to those in the US as well as in Asia. OECD studies on schoolchildren’s performance in reading, math and the natural sciences show students in most European countries lagging behind those in Korea, Japan, Canada and elsewhere.

In other words, apologies if I sound pessimistic, but I think that Europe is actually dying…

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